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To: Gary Burton who wrote (54743)	11/15/1999 12:08:00 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 95453

Gary & All, I may catch the dickens for this, but having been with them from their beginnings here on SI on the old PPPicks thread and having informed them in the past when I have done such a thing...blah blah, I guess it will be OK. Gary, my question to you is, Securitytrader is expecting a strong run up in the markets if Meanie Greenie don't kick'em in the teeth. Now just assuming he doesn't and the markets do run up, how much do you think this will steal the OSX fire, if at all. Following is the ST weekly commentary, basically P&F style: h yes.......the markets breadth is coming back to life. Not only are the leaders charging forward but the laggards are riding the WAVE as well. Even the R2K is up nearly a full 10% in the last 19 trading days.......sheesh. This past week ALL of our short term indicators (see above link) continued their ascent from very OVERSOLD levels. The NYSE Hi-Low Bullish Percent (BP) had the most impressive rally but they ALL remain under 50%. Remember, these short term indicators historically TOP out in the 80% area and can remain in the >70% level for extended periods of time, so there is a LOT of upside potential left in these indicators. Our MAIN COACHES, the NYSE and OTC Bullish percents (the longer term indicators) rallied for the 3rd straight week to 41 & 48% respectively. I would like to make one very important point and that is this.......when looking at this color coded illustration of Market and Sector Risk levels you will note that the NYSE & OTC BP's remain purple rather than GREEN like the short term indicators. This is really more of a technicality issue than anything, but the reason for this is that the NYSE & OTC BP's reversed back to a BUY signal prior to reaching the coveted 30% level. Had they reached the 30% level and then reversed they would be GREEN just as the short term indicators. The Bottom line is this, and I have covered this the past 2 or 3 weeks........the NYSE & OTC BP's only reach (or get near) the coveted 30% level every 4 or so years.......the fact that they reached 32 & 36% 4 weeks ago AND the short term indicators were at VERY oversold levels at the same time indicated we were approaching very washed out conditions in the overall market and that the RISK level associated with the market was minimal and remains quite low. There are a few things that I think are very important to note.......typically the stock market takes its cue from the Bond market, but recently the bond market has been playing catchup to the stock market. Take a look at this 30 yr Bond chart, ( this and the dollar are something that a trader should watch closely ) notice the beautiful Inverse Head & shoulder pattern that its putting in......if it can take out the critical resistance at 115.50 (this would push the yield down) its very likely that the pattern measurement will be met. Secondly look at the US Dollar , it has recently busted out of an Inverse Head & shoulder pattern, retested its neckline and is now coming up on MAJOR resistance. As of now, these are BOTH very, very bullish and point higher........the higher these go the higher the stock market will go. In Summary, our short and long term Market Risk indicators remain on Buy signals after having recently reversed from very oversold and historically low RISK levels. The Bond market and US Dollar have recently put in very bullish basing / reversal patterns which measure significantly higher than where they currently stand. This all adds up to a potentially VERY EXPLOSIVE market. A couple weeks ago I noted that we would probably see more and more stocks making their pattern targets and also more and more stocks showing very EXPLOSIVE setups / patterns. So far, so good......many of the market leaders have recently BLOWN through their pattern targets and about the only thing you can do if trading and that happens is that you either stay long until the stock shows a negative stick OR you take profits and move on to the next setup......its all a matter of preference........I can tell you from my experience, in the current market environment its easy to get sloppy with your trades because the market will be more forgiving, but I would rather take the 10 or 20% pop in a stock and move that money to the next setup. The most BALLISTIC pattern setups will be the Falling Wedge, ascending triangle, symmetrical triangle and the inverse head and shoulder.......oh yes, FLAGS happen alot in these type markets as well. Dangit, one last thing........if you don't think interest rates are headed down.....why would AXP, CMB and other financial stocks be going ballistic ? Lower interest rates lead to a more favorable earnings environment for financial stocks. As always, Alan Greenspan can change the tune of things with a couple words so he will have the last say, but for now, the markets look to be going higher. *************************************************** My view, FWIW, is if oil stays above 25 and especially if it approaches 26, it won't matter a whole bunch what the rest of the market does this week unless it crashes (unlikely?). Best Regards, Roebear