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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: oilbabe who wrote (54748)	11/15/1999 8:27:00 AM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

"If no action to raise output is taken before the onset of winter, prices will rise to more than $35 a barrel on average in Q4 2000" Centre for Global Energy Studies sees oil company inventories nearing minimum LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Oil inventories are getting so tight that commercial stockcover held by oil companies could hit minimum operating levels by early next year, London's Centre for Global Energy Studies warned on Monday. The CGES said that after a heavy draw in September, commercial inventories held in the industrialised nations of the OECD fell again in October -- by an estimated 800,000 barrels a day in the United States and Europe. ``What is more there are hardly any spare stocks at sea, in temporary storage or in the non-OECD countries, the companies having run them down first before tapping their own inner reserves,' said the CGES in a monthly report. ``Now that middle distillates inventories are also declining the companies may well hit their minimum operating requirement of 50 days of cover some time in first quarter 2000,' it added. The Centre said OECD commercial stockcover had fallen from 57 days at the end of June to 54 days at the end of September and would reach 51 days at end-December. Worldwide stockcover was seen sliding from 85 days at end-June to 78 days at the end of the year. It estimated that stocks would be drawn down by 2.9 million barrels a day during the fourth quarter after a million barrel a day draw in the third quarter. World oil demand is estimated 75.4 million barrels a day on average this year with the OECD accounting for 47.6 million bpd. Fourth quarter 1999 demand is projected at 49.3 million bpd, up 2.3 million bpd on the quarter. The CGES said that if OPEC did not act to add extra output soon prices would balloon next year. ``If no action to raise output is take before the onset of winter (prices will rise) to more than $35 a barrel on average in the fourth quarter 2000,' it said. OPEC exporters have already agreed to keep output limits in place until next April and several have said they will consider maintaining the curbs for at least another three months. Two countries -- Kuwait and Qatar -- say they want to keep output cuts in place until the end of 2000. ``Even to hint that OPEC's supply cuts might continue seems both premature and ill-advised,' said the CGES. biz.yahoo.com

To: oilbabe who wrote (54748)	11/15/1999 10:11:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

If OSX can break decisively above 82, there seems little resistance until we hit 89. iqc.com

To: oilbabe who wrote (54748)	11/15/1999 10:23:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Are we entering phase II of the next Oilpatch Cycle - ie:Bomm 2000 ? It appears that we may have put in a new bottom here and will hold over OSX 70+ going forward in the nearterm. Imho; we are at an interesting point in time in the Oilpatch. We are in a period where the little guy - the individual investor; traditionally now enjoys the tables being turned to his favor vs. the traditional house odds. Tax loss selling here of late, Institutional position trimming, selling positions to raise currency for momenteum sector rotation etc. all present opportunity for the little guy. The using of the Oilpatch's near market leading profits from the prior run from this spring as "currency" to now hop on the NASDQ Mo-Mo train; has led to non-fundamental selloffs in many issues in the 'patch. Merill, SSB, Dain Rauscher among others; have pointed out that the recent selloffs were as much related to profit taking & using the oilpatch gains as currency to rotate into sectors with better nearterm momenteum; as they were to concerns over valuations, or that Crude & Gas prices had reached toppy levels. Dain Rauscher had even issued an Institutional directed research report; suggesting that Institutions strongly sell into a rally if the OSX returns to 85ish. Sounds like that will continue to spell OPPORTUNITY for the individual investor who believes the story and the sustainability of commodity prices and who does not buy into all of the OPEC non-compliance & cheating spin doctoring... We've had some E&P's just tear the cover off of the ball in their recent earnings releases; but yet still posting price realizations that do not reflect present commodity prices. The "real story" in E&P land is yet to come. Q4 & Q1 2000 will actually be the first qtrs reflective of the expiration of poor hedging programs that were instituted earlier in 1999; when such conservative measures were prudent. While we have just seen tremendous qtr over qtr and year over year increases in the E&P's - the reporting come Q1 2000ish will be like the 1849 Gold Rush of California imho. The cash flow numbers & production increases will force analysts to dramatically revise upward the current price targets and valuation metrics. Spring 2000 will be the period of euphoria in the oilpatch imho - making these retraces here, prime buying opportunities. The high flying service & driller stocks are once again leading this leg of the cycle on the breakout - as they allways do & allways will... It may be prudent trading to sell into a OSX 85-90ish rally; as the institutions are on record for probably doing so. I would consider selling partial positions into strength; and re-deploying those profits into the laggards in the E&P sector - big caps like NBL BR, mid-lg caps like OEI UPR PXD and perhaps even a smaller cap, or two like CRK RRC TMR RGO for the patient. The actual fundamentals in these E&P companies till exceed those in the driller & service stocks; the street momenteum will ultimately catch up to these fundamentals; allways has - allways will... Small caps in the Service & driller sector as well present the better values here; IIR has a strong balance sheet and is a picks & shovels supplier to the Land drilling of Boom 2000 - and is a 3 bagger just back to moderate prior cycle early upturn periods; NOI as well is oversold given the leverage to a recovery cycle here. GLBL - has to be a $20 stock at the peak of Boom 2000, HOFF is cheap; Seismic is still oversold - OII in the subsea & the entire construction industry is oversold and imho, fundamentally much cheaper than the higher flying - more mo-mo oriented drilling sector presently. Lots of opportunity; but do not think that the volatility, or the profit taking is over with - it "aint".... RE: MDR - why all the ink on this thread ? Simple, one of the great stories of the patch of late. Substantial player in the Oilpatch and a great lesson of how the Street reacts - regardless of fundamental valuations etc. The "punishment" factor is a recurring reality here of late and the single reason the large Institutional holders hold no fear of taking a stock down well below any realistic fundamental valuations; is because they know they will not miss the move on the way back up; because they control the volume necessary to make moves of that degree in either direction... They brought MDR management to its knees here. It is speculation on my behalf; but perhaps this is a strong signal to MDR to act & act now; on the B&W subsidiary, perhaps announcing a strategy, or even forcing a Bankruptcy re-org for that subsidiary. Surely; for the risk oriented - one of the great homerun plays in the patch; and one of the few of this market cap and one of the few who play such a fundamental part within the infrastructure of the Oilpatch. Going to be some interesting times here very soon... Yes; MDR was the headliner; but I found some $8 OEI floating out there and that made my day... IIR this am looking good; RRC back to gift levels... gotta go; I've got the shopping cart out - looking for laggards.