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To: Lane Hall-Witt who wrote (1250)11/15/1999 2:09:00 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1412
 
I still believe that even for short term trading, decisions based on fundamentals are better than those based on any type of trend analysis. If you really study the stock carefully, you can often identify future short term changes before the TA crowd can react. A case in point is the recent 45 percent drop in the share price of LEAP Wireless. The stock price had moved from the 60's to the 90's in a matter of a few weeks, even though the company continues to lose money, and even though buyers at the higher levels would be paying more for potential cellular phone subscribers than what competing service provider shares would cost. This fundamental inconsistency between asset value and return on investment was apparent at least a month before the TA crowd recognized an opportunity to short.



To: Lane Hall-Witt who wrote (1250)11/16/1999 6:51:00 AM
From: BayTay  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1412
 
Lane, Art-

Just for grins, look at the chart today...very clear patterns..it will be interesting to see how things evolve; will it hold at $27 or go back through $34 an on to $40..

btw, it is my understanding that TA is based on crowd psychology theory and I believe there has been a lot of research done in that area so there may be something to it.

time will tell?

bret