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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevinThompson who wrote (14981)	11/15/1999 11:05:00 AM
From: Kaliico	Respond to of 57584

CLIC...breakout...I maintain LT hold on this gem <eom>.

To: KevinThompson who wrote (14981)	11/15/1999 11:20:00 AM
From: Joe Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

This article has me a bit worried..."Wall St Nightmares Over Y2K? Not Exactly" dailynews.yahoo.com Three weeks ago, I opened up the Sunday paper and could not believe the amount of bearish sentiment. Seeing the contrarian indicator for what it was I started buying immendiately. Rande soon spotted the bear trap and I went in full bore. In the last couple of weeks, many of us netted as much profit as we had in the last few months. However, the y2k selloff was hanging over our heads, so we were planning to sell when it started and pick up some bargains at the end of the year. So, now the media pronounces the y2k threat dead. This stinks of pump and dump to me. Get everyone comfortable, drive up the prices a little more and then dump those shares and leave the little guy holding the bag. And buried in the article, is Edward YArdeni who still sees the serious threat of a y2k Q1 induced recession. So, a few more days of pump, maybe a final blowoff rally...and then dump. It's amazing what a great contrarian indicator the Sunday paper is... I'll be looking to Gold for a hedge. It should drop a bit more and then all that cash will be looking for a home. Watch the bond rise back up again as bonds become more desirable too. Don't get me wrong, I don't expect anything major but I think we are being set up for a sell-off; maybe back to NAZ 2800.. Finally, y2k will not be a non-event. There will be some fallout. First of all, Asian and South American economies have not had the luxury of a booming economy the last few years. Many of them are probably lagging on y2k spending. Asian Flu 2 could easily result from any problems. Remeber, US markets are the last to open on January 2. Asian first, then Europe, then US. Secondly, y2k has diverted a lot of IT funds that could have been spent on productivity increasing technology. Much of y2k spending is just paying off a debt incurred by database engineers over the last 30 years. A total waste of money. This non-productive spending will continue into Q1 2000. In fact, I expect it to increase a bit. I'll call it the y2k echo. We all laughed at that example of the Maine DMV calling year 2000 cars horseless carriages, but the bottom line is that Maine DMV IT people had to spend part of their budget fixing that instead of spending the money on something that could increase productivity. This kind of spending to debug the y2k bug-fixes will be widespread in Q1. Anyone who has ever debugged a big bug knows that the solution will also have some bugs when it is implemented. So the productivity drag through the draining of IT budgets will continue and this will continue to hurt the companies that are now rebounding such as ORCL, SAP, PSFT. It will also hurt companies that are new to the ERP space such as our b2b babies. Some of them could disappoint leading to some nice entry points. The good news is that when all of this is over, there will be nothing to spend IT money on except new, productivity enhancing technology. There will be a boom for the boxmaker, the ERP, and the b2b as pent up demand explodes....Look for this just when everyone else is groaning about the drag of the y2k echo.