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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (33456)	11/15/1999 12:11:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi, It was mentioned on the NASDAQ 100 THREAD that a 100-point move on QCOM accounted for 150 points on the NDX. Not that this thread is focused on individual stocks, but the influence of QCOM is very strong the NAZ/NDX. QCOM has moved 200 points in the last 18 trading days, with about 175 of those points coming in only 9 days. There are some signs that QCOM may be weakening right now. Firstly, if it closes around 390 it would be a SHOOTING STAR. Also, if QCOM closes around 390 that would make 2 days in a row with significant upper shadows, which means that it has closed significantly off the intraday highs. However the volume was still good on FRIDAY, so no confirmation from the volume yet till we get the closing figures today. Once it does start to pull back, one of the first targets would be the GAP near 345. Assuming that the short-term top is near 400, a drop to 345 would imply that the NDX would also drop 75 points assuming that the information above is correct. Thats no big deal - a 50 point drop in QCOM, assuming that 400 is the short-term top, is only a 12.5% drop or 25% retracement of the runup. With parabolic moves it is common to see a pullback of about 1/2 or the runup which would be about 100 points. So a drop to the 345 range is not unreasonable. No Im not shorting QCOM since predicting the end of a parabolic move is dangerous, but just highlighting how a reasonable pullback in QCOM could effect the NDX/NAZ to the downside. Dont forget, CRUDE is still continuing to climb. seeya