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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (79942)	11/15/1999 2:55:00 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 1579983

<Do you have an estimate of how many that is?> As I said in an earlier post 4.3-4.4MU. I think there could be very significant upside here for three reasons: 1. The OEM activity seems much higher than Q3 and in Q3 they sold 4.3Mu K6s. I have a hard time believing that there is no corresponding jump in shipments. Sanders is sandbagging and given AMDs track record, Analysts are forecasting even less than the sandbagged numbers. (or, may be I am far too optimistic and the analysts have done their homework and there is no upside here.) 2. If they are sold out then they should be going flat out on the production side, which means there could be more wafer starts for the quarter. If the yields are good as the rumor mill says (and the management seems to have confirmed it without any upside units revision), there could be a big jump in unit production. 3. In a sold out quarter, distribution inventory goes down and a good part of that will flow into the P&L depending on how they account for it. Well, what the heck, I will go out on the limb again and saying this quarter is 4.5-5Mu K6s at about $60 and 1.1-1.3 K7s and chipsets at a combined ASP of about $300. I am thinking of revenues in the $900M +/- $25M region with profits in the 10-30 cent range. Prety scary.You heard it here first! Chuck