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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Erwin Sanders who wrote (6770)	11/21/1999 8:55:00 AM
From: James Connolly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

Erwin, Re: If I2O growth is to be exponential, there will be a host of other OSs. I think that possibility of another I2O OS is quite small. For a number of reasons. 1. Metcalfe's law (see below) 2. The I2O specs are supported by all the I2O SIG members not just WIND. 3. Any competing I2O OS would have to be functionally identical to WIND's to be compatible with other I2O devices. I am sure this would be a very long drawn out process for who ever attempted it (possible legal issues ?). In the mean time anyone wanting to get I2O products to market fast and with least risk will just use WIND's I2O OS. I2O and Metcalfe's Law. global.forbes.com "Metcalfe's Law plays a very strong role in the evolution of the networking industry, especially the Internet. While the Internet itself is the ultimate example of Metcalfe's Law at work, "n" squared is also the guiding force behind many an Internet company's startup plan. You can observe it in action with the "installed base race," that mad dash to sign up, cajole, steal or beg as many customers as possible in the shortest period of time, profits be damned. The game is simple: Build up such a huge base of customers (i.e., increase the value of the network by increasing "n") that no other company can compete. This installed base race--the commercial version of Metcalfe's Law--is the basic concept behind America Online, Yahoo!, Amazon and Microsoft" Read the above article on Metcalfe's law especially the first page. Basically Metcalfe's law says that in any network where there are competing standards the first one to hit a critical mass of installed base will win out. Winner takes all. As far as I can see network's breed monopolies or near monopolies. In a world where Billions people and devices need to communicate, de facto standards are required. People may not like near monopolies but that's what you get. I think it's fare to say that so far WIND is winning the "installed base race" with it's I2O OS. Regards JC. PS. Total I2O royalties were $1.3 million. I think the i960 royalties were $537K, the rest was LSI/StrongARM. Not quite hypergrowth yet but 435% year/year is pretty good.