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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (34672)	11/15/1999 9:19:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Dan, I think you boxed the possibilities pretty well, today's share can be valued anywhere between $25 to few hundred dollars, what a range... You must ask yourself however what will be DDR's encore, even if they get a mild foothold in the next few quarters, particularly in view of the Gorilla's support, so far for RMBS. INTC carries more than its 800 lbs stated weight. Zeev

To: Dan3 who wrote (34672)	11/15/1999 9:57:00 PM
From: richard surckla	Respond to of 93625

Dan3: >> Here's how I do it:<< Could it be that you are neither Short or Long? After I read your post I came to the conclusion that you are over analytical and could possibly be playing tug-a-war with yourself. It seems to me that if you take this approach with all your investments that you would find it hard to invest in any stock. Your analysis calls for too many assumptions and too many questions that you don't have answers to. Also you feel that the figures you have illustrated are correct. I'm not convinced. Since I don't have the benefit or their origin I can't really comment on your numbers. Were these the numbers only for PC's? How about the other partners that use use Rambus tech? I rely more on what I can read from the businesses and people in the know of things, like IBM, DELL, HP, etc., saying that they are backing Rambus tech., instead of the FUD mongers on this thread and their ability to twist the positive into a negative. A perfect example was when the FUD mongers couldn't stop chanting their mantra when a false article appeared that IBM would not support RDRAM. And you Dan3 fall into that group of FUD mongers. Given the knowledge that you appear to have gives you the ability to throw up a smoke screen to confuse the unwary. The worst kind of short is not a short at all. He is one that just likes to act and talk like a short to satisfy something within. This type person has no other reason but getting a personal sick satisfaction by inflicting doubt on someone to cause him to question his previous actions. This type person should be avoided, but put down at every opportunity when spreading his garbage. A true short has the same rights as a true long. Each is trying to make money off of their investment. Each has their own reasons for their investment approach, but in the end one will be a winner and one will be a loser. It has been my experience, however, that a true long posts more truthful information than a true short. A true short twists the truth to a negative where a true long just exaggerates it.

To: Dan3 who wrote (34672)	11/15/1999 10:23:00 PM
From: Dave B	Respond to of 93625

Dan, Here's some of the anti-Rambus hyperbole (positioning?) from your post that I find as grating as you all find the pro-Rambus hype: Shipments at levels that are more than samples should be in the hands of end users starting some time next month. That beats Q1 of 2000, but just barely. It's been a long 3 years for PC rambus. Since Intel chose RDRAM over DDR it's been an equally long 3 years for DDR. Probably longer since they've been fighting an uphill battle the whole way, whereas Rambus has been gaining design win after design win along the way. VIA is showing pre-production silicon for DDR (which may just be a licensed version of Micron's samurai chipset - so I won't count Micron as another vendor) but AMD is also showing its pre-production DDR silicon. Whoop-de-doo. Intel is showing production silicon for RDRAM. What's the big deal showing pre-production silicon? As AMD has shown for years, and as Intel has shown recently, there's still often a long gap between pre-production and production runs. Are you saying that the DDR chipset production from here is going to go without any hitches whatsoever? If so, then you're guilty of the same hubris that many of suffered with respect to the 820. And of course then they have to get Dell, Compaq, HP, et. al. to actually use it. More hubris if you think they're just going to be standing in line to put DDR chipsets in their boxes. It's as much a marketing game as a technical game. Where's the driving force behind driving DDR acceptance? Who's verifying that all of the DDR DIMMS will interoperate? Lot's of work to do still. The "if you build it, they will come" mentality has led many companies into bankruptcy. Good luck with such pie-in-the-sky thinking. Just keep in mind that so far Semico has been right, and Dataquest has been wrong You made this statement with respect to Semico's forecast that RDRAM in 1999 would have 1.7% of the market versus Dataquest's 5% forecast. Since neither company expected the 820 to be delayed and both forecasts were made when September was the expected ship date, this is a very self-serving statement. Semico didn't say that it would be 1.7% because there would be a delay -- they said it would be 1.7% because they didn't think it would ramp very rapidly. Since we still haven't seen any shipments, we have no idea how fast the ramp is going to go and you can't make any statements about either forecast. Certainly, since it appears we're not really shipping until December, it is extremely likely that the share for the year will be virtually 0%. But as I mentioned in the post to Carl, the thing about forecasting is to verify that, even if you're correct, you were correct for the right assumptions. And so far we can't test either set of assumptions. So at this time no one is right or wrong yet. Dave