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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JD who wrote (29743)	11/16/1999 3:22:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

We have so far two rate rises and thord one in offing, the market does not like the part where 'inflationary threats' remain unseen to Fed too, so for market the best news is to get the last one and get out of the way, the best thing isto have it in times when productivity gains are higher than last year and inflation is benign...although Oil prices are still up... looking at core of this month I would do it..

To: JD who wrote (29743)	11/16/1999 4:05:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

This is also a very strong argument.. AG would not like by raising rates a clean bill to the market, so may be he will keep the rates as they are, although I don't think so but anyway good reading from an expert... opposite to what we wrote last night this is todays morning individual investor.. this kind of uncertainity by not raising the rates would leave market to lot of volatility.. In todays individual investor..<<I believe the Fed will stand pat. And the reason: Since there is no overwhelming, very convincing evidence of rip-roaring inflation, Fed chairman Alan Greenspan would have a better chance of calming the stock market if he didn?t raise rates, rather than raising them on Tuesday. Why? Because he would perpetuate uncertainty in the market. You see, the reason the pros who don?t think there is an inflation problem expect the Fed to hikes rates anyway is because they are convinced the Fed wants to restore that third rate cut from last year. They almost believe the Fed?s next move is scripted. In fact, you get the feeling they are hoping the Fed will raise rates. Why? To rid the markets of the only source of uncertainty that is inhibiting the next phase of the bull market party. For this reason, it won?t happen. Because this exuberance is exactly what Greenspan is trying to rein in. It?s in large part the reason he began tightening earlier in the year. If Wall Streeters get their rate hike and then celebrate the end of worrying, we?ll be right back where Greenspan started. So, I think he?ll keep rates where they are. Maybe maintain that negative bias or utter other words that mean, in effect: We?re watching you guys closely. Don?t do anything too speculative or the bull market gets it. In other words, keep all the bulls on their toes, guessing what Alan has up his sleeve. The stock markets will rally briefly, but then fall back. And then you?ll hear all of the pros kvetching how there is still uncertainty in the markets and trotting out the next couple of dates to watch that could result in a Fed rate hike. Folks, Alan has the bulls right where he wants them. Forever guessing. >> 4th quarter earnings and continued good numbers may help the market move forward and out of the range, it has to slow down in earnings otherwise asset pricing can not be capped by managing direction of rates, that would be too dangerous and will act as two edged sword..