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To: Boplicity who wrote (50262)	11/16/1999 8:41:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Bill Siedman of my Genius List was on CNBC first, Gregg, I dont know how far it will drop... volume spiked on Friday and Monday... that usually means the worst is over... I see absolutely no support levels or any significant levels of any kind between 225 and 400... my comment was motivated by your rapidfire list of levels to watch for... they are all nonsense guesswork... we are in stratospheric technical land... I look for the standard textbook classic time-tested 3/8 retracement now... that is about 335... but I also look for continuation with so much unrealized unannounced good news coming we are bidding at 371 or so premarket... I would rather have us bidding down and recover... the higher we jump up this morning, the harder we are likely to test yday's low later today... I dont think we will close anywhere near my 335 mark... but I dont discount the possibility of reacting down there at some time today or tomorrow says Bill Siedman: ------------------ productivity was huge last month, up 4.2% labor costs were mildly higher, down sharply from two months ago retail sales and housing were mild the Fed has NO cause for a rate hike Siedman forcefully states that Greenspan has failed to date in explaining why the USA economy has yet to see any signs of labor wage increases that he fears and expects so assuredly... Siedman claims the answer is that Greenspan takes a parochial view of the USA economy, looking at it as an microcosm... his mistake is not regarding the entire world's labor pool as the available source of labor for American corporations... they commonly send mfg offshore... Siedman went as far as to say that Mexico and Canada are part of the American labor pool right now Siedman did not say whether he thought the Fed would hike I happen to believe the Fed will not hike... for months now they have realized the power of not hiking, the power in the unused weapon that hangs over the market... if he hikes, then the market will consider it the final third hike, and rally hard after digesting it briefly and nodding to the Fed's vigilance toward inflation... if he does not hike, then the market will rally hard realizing that the next FOMC meeting is way in the distance, not until the next century sometime the FedFunds Future contract has a 60% chance of rate hike I dont think it matters one way or 'tother the relief of having this century's final FOMC meeting will be enough to scream RUN, GORILLA, RUN / Jim