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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9913)	11/17/1999 9:04:00 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

CPI - some details from Bloomberg/edits: bloomberg.com - ..but 2 potential inflation concerns: "..Still, in their announcement following yesterday's decision, policy-makers repeated a warning by Chairman Alan Greenspan that a shrinking pool of available workers could cause inflation to bubble up if companies are forced to pay higher wages to attract or keep workers... "..Energy still remains an inflation wild card, as output cuts and declining U.S. inventories have caused petroleum prices to double this year. Prices have marched higher since the end of October, after falling about $2 a barrel last month. Since the beginning of November, crude oil futures traded in New York have risen almost $4, reaching a three-year high of $26.10 yesterday..." - EDIT: Bonds seem to be continuing yesterday afternoon's knee-jerk reaction this morning (after the CPI): quote.yahoo.com^TYX&d=5d 30-year rate jumped up to 6.12%... - Bloomberg on bonds: quote.bloomberg.com

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9913)	11/18/1999 4:17:00 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Minutes of the previous ( 5 Oct.) FOMC meeting: bog.frb.fed.us

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9913)	11/23/1999 8:57:00 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, Brinker thinks their is about a zero chance of a FED hike at 21 Dec FOMC meeting. ...And I tend to agree... However, with apparent continued concern in the bond market on inflation, oil prices setting new highs every week, and the NAZ going ballistic. I'm starting to have second thoughts. quote.bloomberg.com The FED will probably add to the money supply with Y2K imminent. But do we really know what the FED is "targeting"? If it's to preempt inflation that's one thing - and their 3 rate hikes might suffice for that (at least for now). However, if they are targeting 'asset values', including stock market prices/valuations, than that is a horse of a different color. One could argue that they are targeting both. You have previously pointed out that the last rate hike may also be about possible unsustainable growth (and if so, then they-will-be-back...unless there are strong signs of a slowing in process). Of course, as you have already stated, The FED could 'restore' the alleged tightening bias as a way of very lightly tapping the stock market brakes. But this market has no fear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But if it's really asset valuations that they are worried about, then perhaps Dr. Greenshades could still be the Grinch that stole the Christmas rally and slip the market a Mickey on 21 Dec........... Any new thoughts on such speculation?