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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tomas who wrote (54857)	11/16/1999 7:00:00 PM
From: Tomas	Respond to of 95453

Oil pundits warn of $35 Brent price next year LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Oil prices could spike to $30 to $35 a barrel should OPEC extend its tight curb on supplies beyond March 2000 and further deplete already lean global oil inventories, oil industry pundits warned on Tuesday. If OPEC rolls over its accord well beyond April stockpiles could be drained down to levels not seen since the 1970s and propel prices to $35 a barrel by fourth quarter 2000, Leo Drollas of London's Centre for Global Energy Studies said. Even by January the oil cartel's production cut measures could push crude prices beyond $30 per barrel, Herman Franssen, President of International Energy Associates told a London conference. ``If OPEC keeps producing about 26.5 million barrels per day (bpd), there will be a significant stock draw in the first quarter of next year,' said Franssen. ``And that's without Y2K supply disruptions and a cold winter.' International benchmark Brent has already come within a few cents of post Gulf War highs, topping $25 a barrel as the producer supply cuts deplete stockpiles of spare oil ahead of the northern hemisphere winter. The cuts are due to expire at the end of March 2000. But the pundits stopped short of saying that oil prices had shifted into a structurally higher price band. ``It would be unwise and imprudent to make that assumption,' said Tom Kerrigan, chief economist at Texaco Inc (NYSE:TX - news). The bullish price forecasts are tempered by fragile demand projections and the possibility of increasing supplies from Iraq and the former Soviet Union, he added. Increased supplies from OPEC -- either by leakage or formal agreement -- could also cap the rally. ``We give OPEC a 60 percent chance of partly easing its ceiling at the end of March 2000,' said Irene King of JP Morgan. OPEC will also face increasing competition from supplies outside its ranks next year as higher prices bring non-OPEC production back onstream. Franssen saw non-OPEC supplies growing by one million bpd in 2000. biz.yahoo.com