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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Prescott who wrote (12076)	11/16/1999 11:48:00 PM
From: TLindt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20297

>>>>Looks like Tom's cashing in and Benny's hanging in. Tom's looking short term, Benny's looking longer. My natural inclination is to go with the longer term. Well put it on a plane...is that how you spell it? I'm not looking short term, but I would like to know where Benny came up with that number they'd be out of CASH in 6 weeks, after knocking Zimmer about not posting an income link with yahoo and just spouting off. I say, "what's good for the goose is good for the gander" and this thread went dead when I asked for a reference. Na I'm not selling any more, did sell but it's so close to where I did trim, I could multiply the investment 10 fold because I'm basically out of the Market if I had a reason.

To: Bruce Prescott who wrote (12076)	11/17/1999 12:25:00 AM
From: Erik T	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20297

I was just trying to think of a worst case scenario. Be careful with those "worst case scenario's." That got me out of the stock altogether. I will rethink a smaller position if the price drops enough from here. But if you want a worst case scenario, look to the annual report... The Austin platform was designated to host subscribers using a particular personal financial management product that is not expected to be supported indefinitely. We expect that these financial institutions will migrate such subscribers to different software, which will prompt further migrations to Genesis. I don't know how many were still on the Austin platform during the last quarter, but I get the impression that those 200,000 deleted customers were expected to be retained as customers. And then there's this: WE ARE DEPENDENT UPON A SMALL NUMBER OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTION CUSTOMERS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE OF OUR SUBSCRIBERS. We rely on our relationships with three key financial institutions for a substantial portion of our subscriber base and the volume of electronic transactions that we process. As of June 30, 1999, these three financial institutions accounted for approximately 1.4 million subscribers, or approximately 50% of our total subscriber base.... The loss of the relationship with any of these key financial institutions or a significant decline in the number of transactions processed through them could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. Of course that is obvious. Any guesses on who these three key customers are? It's not Citi or BankAmerica. Any guesses what happens if these customers deploy their own EBPP system? Not to mention what happens if NationsBank customers (all now BankAmerica) drop out as a result of BofA instituting its own nationwide bill pay system. In addition I find it interesting that BankOne gets the warrants as an incentive. What about their other key financial institutions which comprise 50% of their subscribers (and probably at least 50% of their current growth)? And now speculation that a Citibank takeover of BankOne might make sense. I don't think this would be so Citi can have a "turnkey" EBPP solution. They could have that by just calling up CKFR. In a worst case scenario CheckFree could lose all the big financial institutions and about 50% of their subscribers just when they have issued $100 million in debt. I don't think this will happen, but that is worst case IMO. Erik