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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benkea who wrote (33574)	11/17/1999 11:13:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Benkea, Although Im still bullish for the intermediate term, here are some current factors that could limit the upmove. No, Im not talking about a crash or a huge selloff. However, some or even many may be expecting the market to rocket from here. 1) Market internals are still in limbo land and not still not confirming a bull trend. 2) CRUDE is still moving up and as previously mentioned, if it did not start to pullback today, the environment would be prime for a technical breakout with an upside target near 30. This does not mean for sure that a technical breakout will occur, just that the environment is prime if it was to happen. CRUDE is in a clear uptrend regardless of a technical breakout and right now there are no technical signs of an important top. Just heard that CRUDE is up 77 cents on CNBC, and thats no small move. 3) The U.S.DOLLAR weakened today. It appears that as of yesterday it was testing the previous high near 101, but has pulled back significantly today. Todays pullback could just be a technical reaction, but we need to watch this. The next TRADE REPORT could have an effect here. 4) It can be argued that the CRB is either in a trading range or uptrend, but its not in a downtrend. Im suspecting that the CRB is forming a higher base for its next move upwards. 5) Interest rates(TYX) did break the trendline to the downside slightly, but did not produce a LOWER LOW, so it could still be technically argued that the TYX is still in an uptrend or in a trading range, but no technical confirmation yet of an important top. I would not totally eliminate the possibility that we may be in another trading range, which shifted higher, or which has a slight upward bias. The above are issues for the intermediate trend. For the short-term, it appears so far that we may get that DOJI, SPINNING TOP, or BLACK day.