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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (75921)	11/17/1999 2:32:00 PM
From: Imuah	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

"Per NY Times article on Sunday, SOX price to sales ratio is something like 19 these days. Historically 2 times at the top. HO HO I love multiple expansion. " Does this mean we're not at a top? :)

To: MythMan who wrote (75921)	11/17/1999 10:07:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 86076

Bob Gabele had some stern words about the semi's..as reprinted in the latest Barron's: Insiders' Chronicle 2 World Trade Center, New York, N.Y. 10006 NOVEMBER 1 ~ It may not be a popular bet, but in this business, sometimes you've got to call it like you see it. Fact is, when it comes to the semiconductors and, even more so, the semi-equipment makers, insider selling is about all we have seen . . . And, despite the Street's budding enthusiasm, this wave shows no signs of cresting. Latest to join in the profit-taking, insiders at KLA Tencor have surfaced to sell shares. Or perhaps "rejoin" would be more accurate. We reported insiders' selling at KLA, beginning back in January, into an upward trend before the stock fell 22% in May. Since then, the stock has approached its all-time high, riding the wave of better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and raised 2000 earnings forecasts reflecting increased demand from Taiwan and Europe. Rather than hoard their shares in anticipation of further prosperity, insiders are selling in even larger numbers than before. Insiders at Applied Materials are also picking up the pace of their sales, selling more shares in August-September than in any like period since '97 . . . And very much as with KLA, a number of the sellers are significantly trimming their actionable positions (common stock plus exercisable options). Other related issues for which we have seen impressive levels of dispositions include Sanmina Corp. (SANM), Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) and International Rectifier (IRF). As always, it's difficult to say why insiders would be selling in a group that appears to be headed more and more into Wall Street's path. On the other hand, we grappled with precisely this same question last month when faced with a sudden bout of profit-taking in the oil-service sector. At least for the time being, it appears the oil services may have in fact gotten ahead of themselves. No two situations are exactly alike, but there's no denying the consensus formed in either group. After all, even those insiders who had been accumulating so impressively at Cypress Semiconductor have since changed course and begun locking in gains. -BOB GABELE The Richebacher Letter 1217 St. Paul Street, Baltimore, Md. 21201 NOVEMBER ~ Trying to assess the future course of the dollar, we see two phases. In the first one, in which we are, the currency markets are discounting a moderate recovery in Japan and Europe, involving a gradual shift out of dollar investments and into assets in these currencies. In our view, this is the rather harmless early part of the impending dollar decline. Whether or not a severe dollar crisis will develop will be determined not in Europe or Japan, but exclusively by coming events in the U.S. economy and its financial markets. What is going to happen to them is the all-important question looming over the currency markets and the world economy. For the time being, any dollar worries relate chiefly to the risk that a too-strong U.S. economy will force the Fed to further rate hikes. The perception is that the higher rates, by hurting both the U.S. bond and stock markets, will accelerate the investors' move into the European and Japanese markets-leading to dollar weakness, if no dollar crisis. For the time being, there is strong hope in the markets that the Fed will manage a soft landing of the economy, implying equally a soft landing of the financial markets and the currency. -KURT RICHEBACHER