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Technology Stocks : Vodafone-Airtouch (NYSE: VOD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brad Patton who wrote (2105)	11/18/1999 4:32:00 AM
From: hl	Respond to of 3175

Hello Brad, I think your second scenario (VOD ups bid, Mannesmann decides to fight) is the most likely (I give this a 85 % chance). VOD will drop in arbirtrage play, Mannesmann will rise, but still trades at a discount (if 250 EUR in paper is offered, Mannesmann should trade at 230). I'm waiting for this to happen, then I'll be out of Mannesmann as well as Orange. In the end VOD will be a loser regardless of the outcome. If VOD wins, they'll overpay for Mannesmann and have spent way too much money for this company. If VOD walks away, they face competition in the UK and they also lose Mannesmann as their ally in D2 and Omnitel. I think the worst nightmare for Mr. Gent from VOD is the fear that someone else snaps up Mannesmann and then kicks the hell out of VOD in a competition fight. As I said, either way VOD will loose. I think in strategic research this is called a "Phyrrus victory" named after an ancient warlord called Phyrrus who said after he'd won a battle with immense casulties among his own forces: "Another victory of this kind will be my end." Regards Kai