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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (33589)	11/17/1999 4:25:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, i was a bit under the weather and stayed in bed the last two days... i noticed the McClellan divergence as well....and it is a sure sign of exhaustion when record volume can't move the NAZ higher anymore, at least short term. conviction according to the polls has also risen considerably. i'm just amazed that various brokers are STILL upping their price targets for the semis, which were never before as overvalued as they are now. someone posted on the MB thread that at previous peaks the semis price/sales was about 2, whereas now it is about 19. but easy Al ain't sure if it's a bubble.....is he going to get a wake-up call one of these days.... regards, hb

To: bobby beara who wrote (33589)	11/17/1999 4:45:00 PM
From: FJV	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Has anyone noticed the XBD today? It looks like a strong reversal day. The 4.7% haircut it took today essentially matches yesterdays gain. The same % move in the Dow would have been good for over 500 points today. Now take a look at daily charts of the XBD index over the last few years. This type of price action seems to portend badly for the broad market, especially if we have a lower weekly close on the XBD on Friday. Another sign of distribution seems to be in the divergence between the tick and the trin on the NYSE over the past few trading sessions. The trin is clearly overbought, with an hourly average of ~.70, but the average hourly tick over the past four trading sessions is approx.-250. It is my understanding that such a divergence is a fairly clear sign that the market (at least the big board) is in a distribution phase. Any comments? If my logic or observations are faulty, I would appreciate your input. As a lurker, I appreciate the volumes of information I have gathered by the likes of Don Sew, Bobby Beara, LG, Heinz and the rest of you bright guys. Sincere thanks and regards to all. Franco edit - average hourly TICK is -250, not trin as I had originally posted. FJV