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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Volsi Mimir who wrote (8976)	11/17/1999 11:24:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78615

Welcome, Crow. Re: MOGA. Well, I just focused on it for a couple of minutes and I'll offer up an opinion. Just my opinion - I'm no expert analyst and I have no business knowledge of Moog (although I know they used to work some joint projects with Allied Signal - a very good sign imo.) And we all have our ways of analyzing and looking at things. With my ways, I've been wrong many, many times before. MOGA could be a value stock. First though, you'll want to recheck your numbers (esp. if they came from Yahoo. Yahoo as I've sadly learned, does not treat multiple classes of stock properly.) Try this: stocksheet.com In the past five years, Moog performance seems to have really improved. Maybe they can continue that growth or sustain it. The stock has sold, imo, at relatively higher avg. p/e's, psr's, and p/book values. So it seems possible, maybe even reasonable to assume it will do so again. (I often invest where I believe beaten down stocks will revert to their mean numbers.) On the other hand, in those early years, the stock also sold for lower psr's, lower p/book (but not lower avg. p/e). So if something negative does happen to the business (perhaps it is a cyclical business after all), it's easy for me to have an opinion that the stock could come down further. ROE has been increasing over the past several years. It currently stands at about 12%. Not so terribly exciting given that the price of the stock is about at book value. I don't see a margin of safety. (Again, that's my opinion after a quick look.) There's no dividend. Not much insider buying that I can tell. Nothing to comfort the investor if the stock slide continues. For me, I'd monitor MOGA and see if I could get a better (lower) entry price. Meanwhile, there are better value buys out there (imo). All just my opinion; I defer to anyone who really knows something, and if Moog receives a buyout offer tomorrow at $30 because it's a perfect fit for some company's strategic plan, you can laugh at me on your way to the bank. Paul Senior