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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TRINDY who wrote (70690)	11/18/1999 9:05:00 AM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 132070

Triny: Not to overstate the obvious, but beware of the "beat the estimate" game, which I think is (finally) starting to be understood by even the densest brick out there. It's a revelation to go back over the last three years and review how frequently the analytical community sets out very high expectations and then proceeds to water them down (very quietly) as quarterly numbers or "pre-announcements" draw nigh. I think highly of HWP, but this past few quarters have witnessed depressing results. I would also underline MB's comments with respect to Fred Hickey. In my opinion, he is one of a very best analysts out there. He is not afraid of the "grunt work" that is mandatory if one really wants to know the score (as opposed to regurgitating the CEO's optimistic comments). He also has a potent background and level of experience that derives from working in the industry. He has also been in this game for a long time and understands the cyclical nature of the territory. He has a magnificent contact gang spread across the industry. He is also INDEPENDENT (a true New Englander) and in my opinion very courageous. As noted in earlier posts, companies have a long list of ways through which they can make a vocal critic take pain. Fred "calls it like it is", in spite of a bunch of arrows fired in his direction. If you are going to bet on the commentary of anyone out there, you would have a tough time in finding anyone in his league. Best, Earlie

To: TRINDY who wrote (70690)	11/18/1999 10:59:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Trindy, HWP's "better than expected" eps are a huge joke. The company posted 73 or 75 Cents, depending upon which set of books you look at. Until the preannouncement of a horrible quarter in October, the estimate was 99 cents. So, they set the bar way low, in fact, under a hole in the ground, and are now being rewarded for being able to jump over it. That is truly silly. Then, the scamster of a CEO comes on to say the co. will grow at 12-15% this year. First of all, that ain't enough for a stock selling at 38 times eps. Secondly, the huge 4% growth this quarter isn't much of a start on that goal. <g> The bulls will sucker in for any scam that comes along. As far as my strategies go, I rarely buy Leaps. They are simply too expensive. In fact, I sell them in spreads big time in my income accounts. I prefer out of the money by one or two strike price puts in the 2-4 month range. They have always given me the maximum profit at the least risk.