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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: quidditch who wrote (3378)11/18/1999 2:18:00 AM
From: Clarksterh  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13582
 
Steven - The difference being, Mr. Softee's mere launch of the newest, latest and greatest version of Windows was sufficient to establish the demand.

Actually the difference is that no one had a choice. They don't make Windows 3.1 anymore. This is not a minor quibble. HDR is neither proven technology under load nor is the user demand proven, and no one has to buy it. They can still buy CDMAOne.

You like to compare this to the move from TDMA to CDMA and ask whether the move to HDR from CDMA appears as risky to the average service provider. You say no, it doesn't, and thus no subsidy should be necessary. But the real answer is that the apparent technology risk is less, while the apparent benefits risk is more. If CDMAOne delivered as promised it was pretty clear that there was a market for the service and the CDMA providers would have a cost advantage. From a service providers perspective, for HDR there may be no market. That is a big risk on top of the technology risk in being first to deploy.

Clark



To: quidditch who wrote (3378)11/18/1999 8:52:00 AM
From: Bux  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13582
 
I guess you are saying two things: (i) use Korea as the test bed/lab to work out MSM4500 (and maybe even 1xrtt, on which MSM4500 builds, if I've got it right) kinks for the US and other markets and, more importantly, perhaps, (ii) force the rate of adoption of HDR so the SP folks can see what it really does and can better appreciate the potential market.

First, I don't think it's accurate to speak of "forcing the rate of adoption of HDR" nor do I think it's possible. "Demonstrating the viability of HDR" is probably more accurate. I.J. spoke about a "catch 22", a reluctance on the carriers part to be the first to deploy this new technology and I think Clark hit the nail on the head when he said the carriers concerns may be more about demand than the technology itself. It is my impression that Korean consumers are more impressed and less intimidated by technology than American consumers. It is important to start out on the right foot.

As to your first point, I think "working the kinks out" may not apply so much to the ASICS as it does to the network tuning and configuration. Qualcomm does not just make the chips, but also system software, test equipment and network configuration software tools. Qualcomm engineers will be intimately involved with the Korean rollout and with the knowledge gained rolling out HDR, will be better prepared to bring these support tools and literature to other carriers so engineers aren't spread too thin when HDR becomes a "must have" addition to voice networks. Would you prefer that Q kick back and let the first carrier to come forward become the test bed by default?

I cannot figure why you are so concerned with this investment. Even if not for the above benefits, do you believe it is a money losing proposition? I doubt it.

Bux



To: quidditch who wrote (3378)11/18/1999 12:12:00 PM
From: cfoe  Respond to of 13582
 
I thought of one more point regarding "enrolling" the SPs. You aksed in an earlier message if last week's and January's meetings weren't enough to do this.

I think we need to remember that companies like the Telcos have more than one management voice. So the technology types probably are enthusiastic about HDR and I would guess most of the marketing types will not be far behind.

But then they've got to deal with the number crunchers, the bean counters to move this forward internally. And I will bet most of these folks are in love with the voice cash cow and (having been a CFO) I can imagine their reluctance and/or their need to be convinced to make the new investment (in technology, marketing, etc.).

As an aside, this does not seem to apply to Sprint PCS. I saw another full page ad for their wireless internet service. Showed a thin phone in the foreground with a wire leading to a laptop in the foreground. I think the ad said available in 256 cities. Could this be right?