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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (1366)	11/18/1999 4:39:00 PM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I know that fundamentally you guys are totally right regarding current valuations, t/a, statistical analysis, etc. Having said that, I hope you guys are not short or sitting on the side lines for what is probably the biggest parabolic move since last October. I have a theory I would like to blow past you guys since your are the gurus... 1) Values right now are insane (everyone knows it). 2) Put volume is low as is VIX.X 3) Amateurs don't typically hedge their positions with puts. 4) That would indicate (along with the unbelievable volume) that the buying is largely professionals. 5) The whole world is looking for a January melt up. 6) The pros are all hyping a January melt up. 7) Thesis: I believe that the pros will continue to run this thing up with minor pullbacks until January 1 (when all of the dumb money comes in) and then sell like we've never seen before. Taking all of the money from the amateurs (J6P) in a big "crash like" scare (which will really be more of a market correction designed to take the money from the sheep. 8) I would watch Put volume as a leading indicator. When it jumps all of a sudden, it's time to get flat and ready to short. What do you gurus think of that possibility? I really value your input. Thanks. Matt

To: J.T. who wrote (1366)	11/18/1999 4:43:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

J.T., very much so, looking forward to it. btw, i'm not sure if i mentioned this before, but the blow-off in the NAZ has already gone 1 1/2 times as far as the final blow-off in the Nikkei, in approximately 1/3 of the time. it's incredible. regards, hb

To: J.T. who wrote (1366)	11/18/1999 6:07:00 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

1928 1929 select individual stock prices: Company Mar 3, 1928 Sept 3, 1929(BC) Nov 13, 1929 (AC) ------- ----------- ---------------- ----------------- American Can 77 181 7/8 86 A T & T 179 1/2 304 197 1/4 Anaconda Copper 54 1/2 131 1/2 70 General Electric 128 3/4 396 1/4 168 1/8 General Motors 139 3/4 72 3/4 36 Montgomery Ward 132 3/4 137 7/8 49 1/4 U S Steel 138 1/8 261 3/4 150 Westinghouse 91 5/8 289 7/8 102 5/8 Woolworth 180 3/4 100 3/8 52 1/4 Dow Jones Avg. 195 381.20 198.70 In 1929, they thought it was a new era just the same as today. Prosperity is more than an economic condition; it is a state of mind. The big bull market then was a climax of critical mass thinking and mass emotion. Higher highs. Are we at or near a climax today? My only answer to that is: CAVEAT EMPTOR Beest regards, J.T.