Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: theRedDog who wrote (33699)	11/19/1999 7:45:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Red Dog, >>>> last week, your Monday's Class I sell was negated on Wed(NAZ). If we get another negated Class I sell again(SPX) this week that would make it "Two negated Class I sells in a row" Did this ever happened before? Any ideas what it might mean? (other than a possible melt-up) <<<< Firstly, it is very rare to get NEGATED SELL SIGNALs on the major indicies. A while ago, before I lost all my data, I went back to 1990 and we never really got a negated signal in the major indices, but there were some instances that was close. Keep in mind that when I did the back test, I had to do it manually so I could have missed 1. Technical breakouts are common in a individual stocks but not indices. The simple logic behind it is that for a index to negate my signal, many stocks in that specific index need to negate my signal at the same time. This is the first year that we had a true and clear negated signal and that was in APRIL when the DOW took off from 10100 to 11000+. If you recall that was my 1st negated signal for a major index. Then we got the negated signal in the NAZ, and right now we have possibility of a negated signal on the SPX. Keep in mind that negated signal does not guarantee a huge move to the upside, but what it does mean is that the environment is prime for the sector to rocket. So there are 2 parts - first the negated signal and then the upside response. Frankly, the liklihood of the SPX to rocket like the NAZ and DOW, if my SELL SIGNAL gets negated, is less since there are so many more stocks in the SPX. Keep in mind that the DOW is only 30 stocks and the top 10 NAZ stocks represent close to 50% of the NAZ. Per my system, this is a real dangerous time to be short, but at the same time I also have many short-term sell signals in other indicies and individual stocks. So to answer your question, yes the market could melt up if the SPX SELL signal is negated. Its not guarantee, but the evironment would be prime. If a melt up in the SPX was to occur I would guess that it could rocket up 150+ SPX, points. Saying all of this, keep in mind that the market internals, interest rates, rising prices in CRUDE oil are not supporting a breakout right now in the SPX to the extent that I mentioned. seeya