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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (80428)	11/19/1999 7:21:00 AM
From: Bill Jackson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572512

Bilow, Will there continue to be enough new demands created by the marketers and the fast chipmakers? Hard to say, I suspect not. Once you reach the ability to do all your browsing and office work for $499 the remaining markets are a lot smaller, and there is not much margin in there. The VIA/Dell style vertical integration will indeed collapse the market and get rid of many players. SOme will see the writing on the wal next year as the VIA machines enter the market and grab share. I will expect Intel sees this and will wirled it's patent armamentarium to try and delay this, but with the NSC tie to VIA they will fail with that major channel even if the do dry up some small players. The rate of tech change and innovation has kept the game alive for longer than it should have...and will certainly make a number of other market segments for people to fight over if Via takes the very low end. Intel has in the past progressively abandoned the low end....mainly due to fab starvation when it became more profitable to let others do certain chips at the low end. Now the move to .18/.13 means they have fab space to spare to make these all in one chips with network capability, so they may wellstay in the low end game. High orders of automation can offset any labor advantages VIA may have. So when we have the under $100 10 gig drive and memory is all .13 and cheap and so are the CPUs and chipsets with a $100 SVGA monitor we can have a BOM under ~$300 with an all-in-one unit box, like an old AMD terminal or Imac. We are closing in on that now. Will AMD do the same? I think not, they will get hounded out of the extreme low end by VIA and Intel. Bill

To: Bilow who wrote (80428)	11/19/1999 7:21:00 AM
From: Bill Jackson	Respond to of 1572512

Bilow, Will there continue to be enough new demands created by the marketers and the fast chipmakers? Hard to say, I suspect not. Once you reach the ability to do all your browsing and office work for $499 the remaining markets are a lot smaller, and there is not much margin in there. The VIA/Dell style vertical integration will indeed collapse the market and get rid of many players. SOme will see the writing on the wal next year as the VIA machines enter the market and grab share. I will expect Intel sees this and will wirled it's patent armamentarium to try and delay this, but with the NSC tie to VIA they will fail with that major channel even if the do dry up some small players. The rate of tech change and innovation has kept the game alive for longer than it should have...and will certainly make a number of other market segments for people to fight over if Via takes the very low end. Intel has in the past progressively abandoned the low end....mainly due to fab starvation when it became more profitable to let others do certain chips at the low end. Now the move to .18/.13 means they have fab space to spare to make these all in one chips with network capability, so they may wellstay in the low end game. High orders of automation can offset any labor advantages VIA may have. So when we have the under $100 10 gig drive and memory is all .13 and cheap and so are the CPUs and chipsets with a $100 SVGA monitor we can have a BOM under ~$300 with an all-in-one unit box, like an old AMD terminal or Imac. We are closing in on that now. Will AMD do the same? I think not, they will get hounded out of the extreme low end by VIA and Intel. Bill

To: Bilow who wrote (80428)	11/19/1999 7:21:00 AM
From: Bill Jackson	Respond to of 1572512

Bilow, Will there continue to be enough new demands created by the marketers and the fast chipmakers? Hard to say, I suspect not. Once you reach the ability to do all your browsing and office work for $499 the remaining markets are a lot smaller, and there is not much margin in there. The VIA/Dell style vertical integration will indeed collapse the market and get rid of many players. SOme will see the writing on the wal next year as the VIA machines enter the market and grab share. I will expect Intel sees this and will wirled it's patent armamentarium to try and delay this, but with the NSC tie to VIA they will fail with that major channel even if the do dry up some small players. The rate of tech change and innovation has kept the game alive for longer than it should have...and will certainly make a number of other market segments for people to fight over if Via takes the very low end. Intel has in the past progressively abandoned the low end....mainly due to fab starvation when it became more profitable to let others do certain chips at the low end. Now the move to .18/.13 means they have fab space to spare to make these all in one chips with network capability, so they may wellstay in the low end game. High orders of automation can offset any labor advantages VIA may have. So when we have the under $100 10 gig drive and memory is all .13 and cheap and so are the CPUs and chipsets with a $100 SVGA monitor we can have a BOM under ~$300 with an all-in-one unit box, like an old AMD terminal or Imac. We are closing in on that now. Will AMD do the same? I think not, they will get hounded out of the extreme low end by VIA and Intel. Bill