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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: xun who wrote (80434)	11/18/1999 11:24:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572208

panic_mob, <I can't imagine a magic that can lift VIA to threat INTC and AMD well beings.> Remember the magic NSM/Cyrix did to Intc/AMD bottom lines in Q1 and Q2? Is that magic sufficient? My gut says VIA can do more magic than NSM because of their cost structure and chipset angle. VIA might bundle a VIA chipset with each Joshua they ship. Right now they don't get much chipset business in the Celeron market. So, VIA would probably count the combined margins of the chipset and CPU. VIA might even see Joshua as a loss leader (how's that for a frightening scenario?). In my experience National would take business at 30 points in heart beat. My guess is VIA would take it at 20 points (because it is a Taiwanse company and unlike National VIA doesn't have anything to depreciate). Chuck

To: xun who wrote (80434)	11/18/1999 11:24:00 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 1572208

Re: I don't think VIA can afford a world class fab They may not need to. The business model in Taiwan is a little different, there appears to be more specialization and cooperation than we are used to. Check out: ebnews.com and consider that this capacity is planned to be online as soon as Intel and AMD's is. Dan

To: xun who wrote (80434)	11/18/1999 11:33:00 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 1572208

Panic_mob, Re:"via" Yes, via will have some success. However it is not a level playing field. Both AMD and Intel have higher margin parts to subsidize low end 500Mhz chips. Via does not have available a world - class fab process. They are stuck with NSM and TSMC. TSMC is great for yields but not so good for performance - at least 12-18 months behind AMD/Intel. And finally profits are driven by volumes of scale. Via will have a tough time simply maintaining its current chipset biz. Even AMD over next year will subtly tilt away from VIA chipsets and start favoring SIS and ALI etc as well as home grown AMD solutions. Intel is already launching a full frontal attack on via in the courts and next quarter in the marketplace once the 820/bx shortage passes. I see VIA being marginalized just as rise and winchip was. And despite their backing I doubt if they will be prepared for the lossess and pain that playing in the CPU biz requires. I suspect VIA will be sold or merged with a DRAM company within a year or two. Thats when we might have to worry. regards, Kash