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To: Gary Burton who wrote (55092)	11/19/1999 6:09:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 95453

Gary, it's always good to have a sobering voice out there. Psychology does drive the market in the short term, but I still believe fundamentals ultimately win in the long run. That said I lean more toward technicals when making a buy/sell decisions (REXI). I don't believe the (Large/Mid cap) E&P's can get much cheaper here because of the increases in price realizations and production. The multiples ascribed to these co's would have to go very low indeed (back to $12 oil multiples?) to keep the shares the same price. You also have to factor poor hedges being removed and excellent hedges replacing them. In a worst case scenario I still see 30-50% upside in many of these issues over the next 6-9 months. Best case 100%+ in selected issues. It's good to be cautious, but at $7 a trade I can get out of positions pretty easy if things turn sour or get back in if things look good. I'm playing it day by day here...

To: Gary Burton who wrote (55092)	11/19/1999 7:17:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Gary: I share your concern about the general market Some kind of drop is highly probable in the near future. But how severe a drop is very uncertain. A trader I have been monitoring for years on another site with a very good record (he is also an E-waver btw) is confidently predicting S&P 500 1500 by year-end. The way I see it now -- modest drop to begin any day. But then another powerful upmove into early early January. Perhaps Dow 12,000 or more. Then a major bear market begins as interest rates start to move higher again.. I see several more Fed tightenings next year and long bond yields up to 7%.