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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (33835)	11/20/1999 9:52:00 AM
From: dclapp	Respond to of 99985

Jacob, good post, as always; thanks. I agree with your comments about QQQ, in particular: >> The turn will be sudden, and, by definition, most people will miss it. I'd prefer not to miss it! Given that, I went short QQQ Friday. Why? -- It seems reasonable to believe that most shorts have capitulated by now (if anyone has short interest numbers on the respective QQQ stocks vs. short interest a couple hundred points back -- you know, a couple days ago <g>-- I'd love to see it) -- I know I can't find a perfect top, but I'd rather be early than late. Jacob, I can't believe that the market can ignore the factors you, Heinz, and many others have mentioned; there's an "accumulation point" where the market has to notice (I think.. :) If the parabolic move continues much further, which I might, I'll also have to capitulate, of course. But I "can take" a few more percent up; though it won't be enjoyable. I really can't believe the Nas will close up 60+% for year. At this point, I don't think any advanced analysis is needed beyond: "How far above the historical mean (moving average) are we? And how likely, historically, it is to move even higher from those ma's?" That said, I hope we can someday return to a more "rational market." I tried my best to be a thoughtful "investor" for many years, using a mix of FA and TA (and thanks to this thread for contributing to my education!)...I'd love to be able to invest that way again. I can't swallow hard enough to be long on many of these stocks now. regards, doug

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (33835)	11/20/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: Jon Tara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Well, we should have a good Y2K test on Monday. NBC is running a Y2K disaster movie on Sunday night (see news stories about this). Now, reports are that it's a schlocky movie that nobody is going to buy, and there are plans to run Y2K public service announcements during the movie, and local news stations are doing Y2K stories before and after to try to dispel fear. I wonder, though, if running the PSAs and news stories may actually have the opposite effect as desired? Why dignify a schlocky movie? Anyway, I think there is SOME possibility of some sort of Y2K pullback Monday based on this, and the fact that it's "amateur week" with a lot of people on vacation and home trading on-line. :)