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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (2801)	11/20/1999 10:31:00 AM
From: Jim Lurgio	Respond to of 34857

Tero, Nokia has teamed up with IDC for the 3-G process and little or nothing is known about what the two have accomplished? IDC has spent quite some time working in the Broadband area and I look for IDC and Nokia to pull a rabbit out of the hat in the 3-G arena. Follow the link and read about Nokia and IDC teaming up. interdigital.com Here?s another link and one posters feelings about IDC and the Q's relationship regarding 2-g and 3-G.. ragingbull.com

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (2801)	11/20/1999 1:39:00 PM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 34857

I'll try and answer your points one by one.... There is one and only one mobile data upgrade for second generation networks that has generated substantial sales and that's GPRS. Nokia's total number of announced and unannounced deals now very likely tops 15. If you compare that to Lucent, Motorola and Nortel numbers averaging 2-3 deals, you see which companies are scrambling. If your argument is that GPRS/EDGE will satisfy the data needs for consumers and that their is no need for W-CDMA/CDMA2000 then I can understand your above reasoning. However if 3G technologies are needed then the above argument doesnt apply....GPRS has NOTHING to do with CDMA. The single W-CDMA contract that has been announced (16B by NTT Docomo) had a list of manufacturers a mile long. Unfortunately Nokia was not on the infrastructure list (I believe it will be making handsets). Right about now, GSM has 51% of world's subs, CDMA has 10% and TDMA has 7%. In July of '98 GSM passed the 100m sub mark, while CDMA had just passed the 12m sub mark. In Sep of '99 GSM passed the 200m sub mark while CDMA passed the 40m sub mark. I wonder where CDMA will be when GSM passes the 300m sub mark? The argument that CDMA (IS-95) is too small a market to concentrate no longer holds water. The subscribers are there, Nokia simply needs to satisfy the market place. My concern is that Nokia has thus far been unable to do this. Perhaps the fact that Nokia was unable to get the 6185 to certified for BAM and PrimeCo is irrelevant to 3G. However, at least to me, the issues will be the same. Thus far Nokia has not executed a real-world CDMA strategy. Three interesting points: announced TDMA network sales are growing rapidly and announced CDMA network sales are shrinking. According to research data, quarter-to-quarter CDMA handset sales growth was unable to pull ahead TDMA handset sales growth. GSM and TDMA are starting to converge next year. I've said it before....I dont follow network sales closely enough to comment. I agree that the 2nd quarter handset sales growth for TDMA was higher than CDMA. You see a trend and I see a blip. I think the only reasonable thing to do is wait until the 3rd and 4th quarter sales numbers come out and we'll see who was right. So the question isn't whether CDMA will pull anywhere close to GSM in subscriber base or handset sales. The question is whether it can handle even the TDMA competition. Slacker - if you have another opinion, how about naming one independent research report that disputes the three claims above? Articles from "San Diego Tribune" don't count. I was wondering what you were talking about with the "San Diego Tribune"....then I went to the Q threads and realised <g>. I dont think that I have ever cited the SD Tribune. In fact I am even more sceptical than you....I dont even believe that the so called "independent research" reports get it right. However since we need to agree to use one set of figures....we'll go with them. One final comment....The eventual 3G subscriber units will depend on many things; form factor, operating system, styling and of course RF. I'm really not worried about the first three....Now I'd just like to be sure that Nokia will master the last one. Nokia has great management and I believe that they will execute....however I remember that during the early 90's Motorola was considered to be one of the world's best run companies also. Nokia has been priced to perfection (as has Qualcomm)....missteps at this point would prove costly. Slacker