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Gold/Mining/Energy : Pangea Goldfields T.PGD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AriKirA who wrote (522)	11/20/1999 2:01:00 PM
From: Syncrude	Respond to of 1178

AriKira, Aha! You stated "FYI I sold all my shares during the last run up but will be buying back in due time...". LOL So we ARE on the same page! And yes, Mr. Potvin is too experienced to give away the farm. I just hope that we see what he has up his sleeve soon, or else I might join you in selling and buying back later...

To: AriKirA who wrote (522)	11/21/1999 11:12:00 AM
From: timbouctou	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1178

Ari, some ideas. I find it intriguing that months of discussion/negotiations between PGD/MDN and Barrick has produced only a share/warrants issue and at such low price. This could not be the logical conclusion of such negotiations. Therefore there must be more than meets the eyes. What could it be? Three significant points could help us make sense of last week's development: 1- The "sale" (as it seems to weaken PGD's position to negotiate) is not consistent with PGD's past management performance. I do not think that they have suddenly become poor managers (management has too much at stake with their share options), it does not make sense. 2- PGD has announced a feasibility study and not only a drilling program. It is a significant development. It further indicates that Tulawaka is their #1 priority and that not only do they intend to invest a large portion of their resources but also they accept to dilute the ownership by issuyng 2.2 million mmore shares (warrants included)in order to conduct this feasibility study. 3- Barrick cannot justify to its shareholders paying around $15+/share for PGD given the proven reserves. It would be seen, in the short term, as a temporary share dilution (until reserves are proven), lowering the value of ABX shares on the market (they do not buy with cash, they pay with share issue). But obviously Barrick is very interested in PGD: they have not discussed, negotiated, visited and analysed the properties just for the fun of it. A LOGICAL EXPLANATION (??) IMO the following explanation (my theory only) provides a good explanation for last week's events and would restore my confidence in PGD's management. What if: -Barrick and PGD/MDN have reached an agreement for the take-over of PGD/MDN not on a price (obviously they have not been able to do so) but instead on a formula to determine the price. - This formula would call for a feasibility study to be conducted ASAP on Tulawaka. Based on the results fo this study, the formula would be activated and Barrick would take over both companies. Barrick's management and shareholders would buy that. - To protect against an outsider's bid, Barrick obtained, in exchange for the agreement/formula, a right of first refusal and the option to buy 1.2 million shares (which, added to aother purchases could place them in the 10%+ range). This "theory" a) is consistent with the track record of PGD's management and with Barrick's strategic behavior; b) protects the shareholders (among them, the management of PGD) as it base the take-over price on the value of a feasibility study (not on numbers "drawn from a hat"); c) sets a date for the take over : end of feasibility study (which I hope PGD will annouce shortly). In the mean time, a value around $4 should be a floor price not a ceiling. IMO other majors (Barrick included if they have nor reached a level of ownership just below the 10% level), as well as other investors will build their position in PGD. If my analysis is right, anybody who wants to acquire an important number of shares will have to push the price up. Most investors are holding to their stock. It would be impossible to buy a few million shares at or around $4 (I hope!). Add to this the upward pressure exercised by new drilling results (both Tulawaka and Golden Ridge) and the progression towards the end of the feasibility study... I am too chicken to sell my shares and invest my money else where hoping to be able to buy in later at a reasonable price. You have more solid nerves than me. I staying in! If my analysis is right, then we are getting closer and closer to $15. How far are we? The time it takes to do an aggressive drilling program abd a feasibility study (6 to 9 months?). The ideal situation for us would be that an other major built a 10%+ stake in PGD. This would launch a bidding war somewhere down the road.