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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (33866)	11/20/1999 4:51:00 PM
From: NucTrader	Respond to of 99985

from urbansurvival.com, sort of "be careful if you decide to go for a swim..." but his time perspective of "weeks ahead" suggests potential for further upside >>For one, "smart money" indicators are flashing a yellow warning light, as the latest commitments of traders data shows the commercials are selling into this rally and are now net short S&P 500 futures. Also, the latest exchange data shows a marked pick-up in specialist short selling. Furthermore, there are also some signs that speculative sentiment is nearing frothy levels, with the latest put/call data at euphoric extremes. And from a market internals perspective, the expansion in NYSE new lows this week is disconcerting especially coupled with the weakening of breadth as evidenced by the McClellan Osc. dropping to +32. A drop below -50 for the McClellan Osc. would be a clear danger sign that this rally is running out of gas. However, none of the above indicators suggest an imminent derailing of this bull train just yet, they are merely caution signs and "bear" some careful scrutiny over the weeks ahead. <<

To: bobby beara who wrote (33866)	11/20/1999 5:30:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

b, I observe that you are often correct but early in your calls. Same may be true this time. I understand technicians say that tops are harder to call than bottoms. Perhaps. This top certainly has eluded me!

To: bobby beara who wrote (33866)	11/21/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, If we are topping, which areas are the most vulnerable in a selling environment? I am looking at HHH and QQQ. Both are making new highs pretty much daily. Personally I think we are in a blowoff like I have never seen. I have friends who have made over 150 grand in the past month alone (with options on net stocks mostly). Yet it may not be a blowoff. Or maybe the blowoff will last a lot longer than most think. If this rally can continue another month or so, and if no problems Jan. 1; we could see short covering like never before and QQQ could go to 220 by Jan. 5. If you were going short before a possible turn, what are you looking at? Thanks in advance, Steve D.