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Gold/Mining/Energy : SOUTHERNERA (t.SUF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: buylowsellhigh who wrote (5037)	11/21/1999 7:34:00 AM
From: gemsearcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7235

Hi BLSH. Based on a quick , rough , back-of- the -envelope DCF NAV calculation , I would ballpark palladium as approximately 15-20 % of total holdings. That assumes that the bankable comes in close to the pre-feas , production at Messina is ramped up to 80K tpm , a palladium price of say $300 and - oh yeah - the deal closes <ggg>. Regards

To: buylowsellhigh who wrote (5037)	11/21/1999 9:35:00 AM
From: gemsearcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7235

Hi BLSH. Further detail on Messina breakdown of PGM's , derived from Merrill's April 20 report. It would appear that platinum represents 44% of the deposit , palladium 35% , rhodium/ruthenium/iridium/gold 20% , balance is nickel/copper . Accordingly , of the known 10.5 million oz. , 3.675 oz. are palladium (or say 2 million oz. to SUF - i.e. 54%). As best as I can determine , SUF's diamond assets have been valued in the $6-8 per share range (see Merrill report , CIBC World Markets Sept. report , Hilton Ashton's most recent valuation) by the majority of analysts that have expertise in this sector. With the increase in planned production from Messina (60K tpm/120K oz. p.a. to 80K tpm/160K oz. p.a.) and the improving PGM market , a rough analysis would suggest a $5-6 NAV per share for SUF's 54% interest (as opposed to $3-4 NAV per share in April); of course , any equity financing to fund the acquisition might alter these #'s somewhat. So , if palladium is worth say $1.75 - $2 (i.e. 35% of $5-6), suggesting that it represents 15% of SUF's total holdings is probably not too far off the mark. That said , SUF is currently trading at a huge discount to its diamond assets and whom knows if the market will apply a gold-like premium multiple on its PGM assets. Regards.

To: buylowsellhigh who wrote (5037)	11/22/1999 5:06:00 PM
From: crudestope	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7235

Dear Buylowsellhigh, No wrath this time?!?! I knew that if I got my book out on the Bushveld Igneous Complex (BIC) everything to do with the Merensky, UG2 and Platreefs would become more complex (no pun intended). The Merensky reef's Pt, Pd ratio over its 400 km length is estimated at an average of 65, 35 plus gold, copper and nickel values. The UG2 reef is rich in chromite and its Pt, Pd ratio is about the same as Merensky's but for a major part of its length lacks gold, copper and nickel. The Platreef is found in the northern section of the BIC where the Pt, Pd ratio is 50, 50. At the Uitkomst nickel mine the reefs favour Pd where the ratio is 70 Pd and 30 Pt. The part where Messina is located the Merensky reef's Pt, Pd ration is about 60, 40; the UG2 reef is similar and in addition carries gold, copper and nickel. The Platreef is not present. The major supplier of palladium is Russia and is erratic in its sales. The quantity in its stockpile is unknown. Palladium can be substituted by platinum in most present applications. Regards, Crudestope.