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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (51213)	11/20/1999 8:48:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 152472

Maurice, << EVERYONE predicts that 3G and ALL mobile terrestrial voice interface will be CDMA by Q! >> Respectfully (and unfortunately) EVERYONE does NOT. 3G, most certainly. I do not think that anyone can alter this course and I have believed this since the GSM communitty (ETSI, 3GIG, GSM MoU now known as GSM Association which now constitutes 399 members from 142 countries including four 3G licenced network operators in the world) solidified this decision in January 1998. ALL (or close to all), is where I (and it would appear others more visionary and knowledgeable than I) disagree. << GPRS and EDGE are not going anywhere >> To the contrary. Most of the major carriers in the world are committing heavily to GPRS and by extension EDGE and 'T' appears to be still fully committed to EDGE. These carriers are protected by contractual committments from the Big Three, Lucent, and Nortel, to make these technologies work. They have the clout of ETSI and the GSM Association behind them. As a result, I am as confident that GPRS amd EDGE will work for them as I was that CDMA would work for NYNEX, BAM, PrimeCo, and WirelessCo, when these companies made their (some would say) risky technology (or vendor financing) decision in early to mid 1995 and rumors were floating out of Hong Kong and Korea that CDMA was not working, just as today we hear rumors of manufacturers facing barriers with GPRS and EDGE development. As disappointing as I find it as an individual who is >25% invested in Q, it appears to me that GPRS will become the dominant worldwide 2G (2.5G) wireless technology, and 3G will not replace 2G any faster than than 2G has replaced analog wireless which means that Q revenue is as highly dependent upon 2G success for the medium to long term as it is for 3G. As you know, I spent the first week of September in a wireless mobile telephony workshop in France, sponsored by one of Europes leading computer companies, for their (worldwide) telecom division. As a result of this visit 6 things stand out in my mind: * GPRS has SERIOUS momentum and the worldwide GSM communitty (even here in in the US) is installing and building out for it (not just testing). * Potential 3G data capabilities are way ahead of any business plan that has been formulated by any carrier in the world outside of Asia. * Experience gained by GSM carriers participating in the Mobile Data Initiative for the last 2 years places them 18 months ahead of any other technology persuasion in terms of implementing practical revenue producing wireless data applications (and stand alone web browsing does nothing for carrier or customer in a practical sense, except as a novelty). * E-Commerce will be BIG. WAP is BIG. Secured WAP (WIM with RSA PKCS#11 and & STKA)is BIGGER! CDMA NOWHERE on this one that I can observe. WAP has a short life (best 3 years). JAVA SIM/UIM will replace, says most EVERYONE (your word). * CDMA What? The GSM, Satellite, and 3G network operators that comprise the GSM Association just aren't interested outside of the air interface which they have planned to adopt for 3G, (and feel they don't need for 2G network reuse). * Remote area coverage will be adequately provided by Globalstar with GSM SIM/UIM inside to allow authentication to a GSM network. You have been in Europe (and around the world) more recently than I. I would aappreciate hearing your obsrvations on these subjects. - Eric -