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Technology Stocks : PairGain Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug R who wrote (34795)	11/20/1999 5:58:00 PM
From: Sosmartinov	Respond to of 36349

You don't have to tell anybody here that PAIR can drop like a rock....we certainly would look forward to your updates on that subject. For us ANY uptrend has been an IL until lateley.

To: Doug R who wrote (34795)	11/21/1999 2:08:00 PM
From: Rainmaker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36349

Doug_R: I'm reading your TA posts with interest. Specifically, with respect to predictive modeled stock behavior that would provide the following: < there is a less than 1% failure rate for this model to adequately predict price activity once all the conditions are met> If it's not too much, can you elaborate a bit on the "conditions" and the modeled output (ie. where do you see PAIR's price in timeframe X?). I use several software programs to predict behavior of final output X. In the case of stocks, this is price and timeframe. Conditions I use include: 1) 20-day MA trendline movement (slope) 2) daily price range and deviation relative to 1, 3, 5, and 10 previous sessions 3) daily MACD range and movement relative to 1, 3, 5, and 10 previous sessions 4) 2 year price range (boundary limits) 5) market (DAZ) valuation range, deviation, and slope These are 5 primary indicators I plug into the following software: 1) Decision Criterium (uses Monte Carlo simulation - at least 1M iterations) 2) Regression Analysis (statistical valuation) 3) Probablistic Determination 4) Stochastic Determination (stochastic not in the stock TA sense - uses discrete values rather than range of values in the Probablistic method) 5) Finite Element Analysis (using 0.000001 increments for convergence, I can go to one-billionth, but talk about slowing down my computer!) The FEA is stuff I wrote a while back (aghast, in college) to model random flux such as turbulent boundary layer airflow across airfoils or heat transfer across composite structures in varying thermal environments. Essentially, this plays off entropic behavior reference by the Almighty Newton. Inputting values for the above parameters, the best determination I've been able to arrive at is 59%! From a statistical validation and predictive behavior standpoint, the number sucks. I'd be safer to say PAIR stock price will be between 16.5 and 19 this coming week based on gut feel. ;o). Thanks in advance for your input.