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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (10814)	11/21/1999 9:30:00 AM
From: JohnG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

FranQ. Gorilla death notice. I have been meaning to advise all that CISCO may will be dead in 5 years. Only one way they can escape. JohnG To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (51270) From: JohnG Sunday, Nov 21 1999 9:12AM ET Reply # of 51279 JimWillie. On Lucent. What you missed was the all optical switch they announced a couple of weeks ago. If the switch works economically then combine it with 1)the doped eribium amp (all optical amp, 2) multi lambda optical multiplexing, 3) Lucent's low water optical fiber (no water attinuation spikes),4)JDSU's full component service and module optical components, 5)Nortel's router software (licensed to Microsoft for inclusion in future operating systems AND guess what, CISCO mayt well be history--TOAST. JohnG Also, the demand for broad band just doesn't work with CISCO equipment. Previously, optical had to be converted to electronic to go thru the router. If Lucent's optical switch works, this won't be the case. Also, the mass of transmissions can jyst be broadcast over fiber rather than being routed in the future. Neadless to say, as GG says, AT&T's copper network is rapidly becoming a historic relic. This is why CSCO is trying to get into a new business--CDMA last mile service. It's to SURVIVE. And they may bypass QCOM patents. But they sure as hell can't bypass QCOM's experience. In my opinion CSCO is a rabbit running straight down the road in front of an approaching 18 wheeler. Have advised B-in-law to dump CSCO--to much risk of failure at this point. QCOM can put any one into the last mile business---so why should it be CSCO--what will be the QUID PRO QUO. Also advised father to buy JDSU. QCOM rules!!! And JDSU isn't too shabby either. JohnG