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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (55148)	11/21/1999 10:46:00 AM
From: warren harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Here's a dumb question from a new follower of this thread. What is the OSX and where does one find the numbers? I'll venture a naieve guess - Oil Service Index?. This is a very interesting thread with a lot of informative and thoughtful posts. Thanks.

To: BigBull who wrote (55148)	11/21/1999 10:58:00 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

decisionpoint.com Market view from an EWaver. Top setting up? 50% return in NASDAQ in one year, 19% up from October low. Danger Will Robinson! Since we like to share views on this thread, I just thought I'd throw out mine. I think we are approaching a short term top and I tend to agree with Mike D. that there are too many indications that the overall market isn't as healthy as the major indexes imply. Most of my indicators are glowing bright yellow with the exception of the oil sector. It's one of the few areas that look green to this observer. Strong caution is my suggestion to those entering new positions in the high tech market. Individual issues may do well but I think we are going to see a short term top soon. BWDIK? Just my opinion, subject to change at any time in the future<g> Michael

To: BigBull who wrote (55148)	11/21/1999 12:25:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Bull: Your forecast is in close accord with my own thinking. But there probably will be at least one more sharp correction on the way to OSX 120.

To: BigBull who wrote (55148)	11/22/1999 9:07:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Bull - predictions; why would anyone "mock" that ? Bull; I'd say you post is the general consensus here... and I wouldn't think many would disagree, let alone "pillorie, or mock" you...? Sure, we were due for a bit of a correction here; but certainly not a re-visit to OSX 60-65. Enough of one, to where taking profits and perhaps rotating to laggards (remaining fully invested) made sense; but not to a degree conversely - to where just holding is irrational. One main story here is for those who choose to take some profits off of these short term bursts; there is no shortage of rotation ideas. This continued volatility makes taking profits easier than it will be in mid, or late cycle. One can sell a land driller on a breakout, only to be able to steal a seismic company, or an E&P the next day... the volatility of the Oilpatch and the individual stories within the different subsectors have created a continued landscape of opportunity. Later in the cycle; holding through these small pullbacks will make sense; as there most likely will not be the number of laggards, or sheer value plays avaialble. And yes; we certainly will break thru OSX 100 - and 120ish looks to be the next stop and if it is to be - it certainly has to be in the next 6 mos; as we can not go through an entire Winter heating - drawdown season and not rally on $25+ crude oil and increased activity... 1.OSX 120 in 6 mos: ... I'd agree; we only need rig counts to move to levels to get the momenteum of dayrates trending upward ... how about OSX 200 in 2001 ? 2. "broader & stronger" ... hmmm; ? The 97-98 rally looked pretty broad to me. Actually, I think there are some differences; the offshore Rig Construction boom of `97 is not going to be here during BOOM 2000 imho; The North Sea and some Intnl markets are different; but the story will be the increased upside earnings capacity of "many" companies - due to the streamlining of operations and cost cutting that will create new highs in many companies. I think there will be some pockets & subsector niche's that will vastly outperform others; so stockpicking will not go unrewarded. 3. re: a correction to OSX 75-80 ... seems reasonable; short term 15-20% moves are certainly worth trading; - that used to be a major yearly move in the DOW ! - and we've had about 4-5 of them this year alone. A 15-20%ish correction is also a potential 30-40-60% move on margin and certainly opens up some "major" trading opportunities for those who trade with higher risk orientation. 4. "Drivers" ... agreed; "best of both worlds" imho; supply constraint and demand growth ! 5. "attempt to catch the bulk of the gains by holding..." ... awww C'Mon Bull (VBG) - no market timing , no stock picks, no trades (VBG)? 6. "selling at OSX 120" ...I'd imagine that we will take periodic "breathers" all along the way; personally - it just depends on how far & how fast. Those 20% 3 week moves have my finger on the cash register pretty fast; but a slow & steady non-stop move is a hold pattern... Bull; I pretty much agree - nice post.