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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (7208)	11/21/1999 5:37:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 9719

V1, The issue of a partner for MGI-114 is tricky. MOGN, being profitable, isn't quite as desperate as ye average starving biotech, and so the bullish explanation is that they are optimistic about the drug and are waiting to partner-up until they have solid data to prove it to their prospective partners. The bear case is that it's a marginal drug and/or "Europe is still on vacation." I often wondered whether choosing irinotecan as the first combo to try wasn't a signal that PNU was interested, given some have argued (and it looks like they may have been correct) that it wasn't the ideal combo. At this point it is impossible for an outsider to know which of the bull or bear case is correct. My instinct is that MGI-114 will ultimately be an approvable drug, and a blockbuster is still at least a possibility. Given even a marginal approvable drug, MOGN is still underpriced, and so I am holding a moderate stake for now. Peter

To: Vector1 who wrote (7208)	11/21/1999 6:45:00 PM
From: Ward Knutson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

<<I am surprised that that do not have a pharma partner since they do not have the resources to take the drug through phase III themselves.>> That is entirely a FALSE statement. I suggest you call Bill Brown, CFO. <<I guess I expected better initial results in the phase IIs>> 114 is shrinking a broad-range of tumors in human clinical trials. We have already seen evidence of 70% plus Pancreatic, 60% plus Ovarian, 47% non-small cell lung, and a profound impact on PSA levels in very sick prostate cancer patients. We also have been told by the Company that they are extremely encouraged by the number of courses of therapy patients are receiving. Patients in Phase II studies ONLY continue to receive courses of treatment IF they are experiencing disease stabilization OR better, tumor shrinkage. Obviously long-term dosing implies tolerability of the drug, ie. safety. We have observed nothing but trends which point to efficacy and safety, in other words the precursor to approval. This is to say nothing for the other 9 analogs that the Company owns rights and patents on, all of which are showing activity in pre-clinical studies. Why do you think the NCI continues to expand the amount of their resources being used in the development of acylfulvenes? The expansion is well beyond the scope of the initial contractual agreement with MGI. If you are Chuck Blitzer and you have strong indications of a very potent anti-cancer agent, you wait and deliver the solid anticipated clinical data to the prospective partners before you ink a deal. This only increases the appetite of the partner - making the marketing partner a far more lucrative deal. V1, it is clear to me you have very little understanding of what is really going on at MGI Pharma especially as it relates to the development of the acylfulvenes. The facts are stacked in direct contradiction to your impressions.

To: Vector1 who wrote (7208)	11/21/1999 11:23:00 PM
From: David Cathcart	Respond to of 9719

V1, I guess what I don't understand is this: You enlarged the portfolio's position in MOGN a few months ago based on positive results that expanded the prostate PII trial. Since then there has been only one other bit of news from the PII trials which was positive news from the ovarian PII trial which in turn expanded that trial. Now, while the company has released a little information from the PI trials (IMO to throw a bone or two to long term investors), they have been appropriately quiet about the PII trials and they run their course. So, unless I'm missing something, there is no real information to counter your reasons to enlarge your MOGN position in the first place. In the absence of that, isn't it sort of odd to sell out as you near the point where the expanded prostate trial results will be revealed? Is fatigue not setting in just as you are nearing the finish line? David