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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Westman who wrote (10885)	11/22/1999 12:06:00 AM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

John, I don't recall which sectors were the prime movers after the significant 73-74 correction that was largely caused by the huge run up in oil prices. It was a non-internet, much less technological rebound that was quite broad based among major US Industry groups. There are several significant differences between 1999 and 1974: In 1972-73, oil was selling for 2-4$/barrel, and gasoline was 29cents a gallon. It leaped to over $30/bbl if i recall, and perhaps spiked higher. Today, gasoline at $1.30-$1.40 is actually significantly cheaper on an inflation-adjusted basis than the .29Cents per gallon were back then. (Loved my GTO!) Secondly, energy this year rebounded from a hugely oversold condition in 1998-early 99 and so the present prices are really within the range of the past few years. The runaway price train is, in my opinion, a catching up for the sharp declines of the early 2 years. I would be surprised if this increase in oil results in a triggering event re market correction and recession. There may well be, and likely will be some event. But it most likely will be something that none of us can conceive of at the present time. Larry