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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (7225)	11/22/1999 3:04:00 PM
From: Ward Knutson	Respond to of 9719

V1 Taxol is a multi-billion dollar drug and as you know there are significant issues relating to toxicity management with it. Major institutional coverage tends to come with investment banking activity. For quite some time now the company has experienced no need for cash. Shrinking tumors in metastatic disease is not the end point. There are people who know far more about this drug than yourself who anxiously await the opportunity to treat patients with less advanced stage cancer. I will not go into this theory in detail now, but it has to do with the mechanism of action and the selective uptake characteristics. Being able to successfully administer 6 months of treatment or more to Phase I and Phase II patients (and shrink tumors) is of great significance and points to managed tolerability of the drug in even the most down and out of patients. You may want to discuss with John MacDonald the safety of the drug before making guesses, it will only increase your chances of drawing the proper conclusion. Salagen is not all that MGI has to market. You may want to look at the opportunity for significant growth provided by the PNU deal. You must admit that Phase II information of significance is ONLY NOW becoming available to the Company to utilize in its negotiations with the Euro/Marketing partner. Without 114 R&D the company trades at less than 15 times earnings and is growing revenues at 30-40% on 90% plus GPM. That valuation is anything but lofty.

To: Vector1 who wrote (7225)	11/22/1999 3:23:00 PM
From: David Cathcart	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

V1, <<First my most recent action was to reduce my MOGN position.>> I know. My point was that since you last increased your MOGN position (at I believe $11 - $12), based on positive results in the prostate PII trial, you have had a change of opinion without seeing any negative PII data. I guess what I'm saying is that either your reason to increase the position was perhaps relatively weak, or you appear to be losing patience right when the reason you increased the position is reaching fruition. <<With compeling results Blitzer could cut a good deal now.>> Blitzer's background is in cutting good deals. The "good" part is subjective and in this case is dependent on the promise you see in MGI-114. Right now the company is keeping pretty tight lid on PII results. If your gut is telling you that the results will be less than compelling, then a "good deal" is one that is signed now and the money is in the bank. On the other hand, if you are inclined to believe that the revealed PI and PII efficacy cases are representative of what we will see when the complete PII trial data is presented, then a "good deal" is the one Blitzer is now working on and will be worth much more than the first scenario deal. <<With limited information on MGI 114 a lot of this is gut feel>>...<<The question will be whether MGI can increase survival>> Unfortunately gut is what most of us have to rely on at this point. I have found though that the deeper I look at this situation, the more my gut, and brain, tells me that MGI-114 is worth much more that the market is presently giving it credit for. We are ever so close to finding out what is real. Finally, I just want to say I'm not attached to your decision here but, rather, I've enjoyed the discussion. Good luck and now I'll resume the lurking posture. David