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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scott Zion who wrote (3483)	11/22/1999 3:18:00 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 13582

Does anybody think Zyglis replacement of Hesse as head of ATT wireless will spur adoption of CDMA by T?

To: Scott Zion who wrote (3483)	11/23/1999 3:06:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 13582

Scott, thanks for those Frezza links. I enjoyed some nice nostalgic reading, some of which was very related to action today. It's disappointing to see the predictable and avoidable come along to damage Q! now. China could have been CDMA now! Immodestly, here is a timely excerpt from 3 years ago: <Another area I see looming, maybe a decade from now, is hubris. When you are the best and brightest, your charms and the surrounding cheering induce a soporific self-adulation which leads one to lie back and bask in the glow - it won't feel like basking, but basking it will be. The creative genius and drive behind CDMA will long have gone and the momentum will seem to be created by those who are actually being dragged along in the wake of the initial impetus. An example would be IBM who took an empire and ran it down with hubris. Apple too. Will Qualcomm be able to create a climate of humility in it's operations? Or are they just too great? Related to this is the bigger picture. The USA presumes to give instruction to Japan, China and others on FREE TRADE, while retaining all its own fraud in this regard. The USA does not operate free trade systems. Binding itself into the concept of trade wars with Japan and China, a brinkmanship they continue to indulge, could spell disaster. They are irrational to do so, but that has never been a barrier to action. If they indulge their madness, Qualcomm will not be selling CDMA in China and GSM could become the official system. There is a concept still with many in the USA that China and maybe even Japan are part of the "starving millions in Asia". Wake up Uncle Sam!!! You are an old man. If you pick a fight, your CDMA and a lot more besides will be looking pretty sad. Al Gore gives Irwin Jacobs a Medal for Technology, then goes back to punching out the lights of Qualcomm's potential biggest customers over some Free Trade Fantasy. Open your borders USA and ignore the burden other countries put on their people by restricting trade. It is not a USA loss. Little NZ did it and look at our economy go, after decades in the bog of protection. Is Uncle Sam too old to understand the reality of the modern interactive world? > With friends like those, who needs enemies? Invite Zhu over, send him packing empty-handed, then bomb his embassy! How to win friends and influence people. Even at this late stage, CDMA still has a chance, thanks to the huge efficiencies of it and competition which will deliver high performance at low cost. Qualcomm is on track to be the biggest gorilla in town! In 7 years, Q! will make IBM at its Zenit[h] look an interesting artifact of the early 1980s. In 15 years, it will be interesting to see Qualcomm. Will they have hubris? I bet the JJJ Klan [Joel Klein, Janet Reno, Jackson] will be sizing them up well before then to protect the consumers from cdma2000 WWeb monopoly pricing. Paradigm Shift Happens! Mqurice PS: I'll let Frezza RIP for now... Thanks too for the links to the Telecosm99 webcast. WWeb will be big time! If Nortel meets their price per Megabyte goal, people will watch trillions of bytes while they have time on their hands or just want to see such stuff. It doesn't take too many bytes or dollars to see it. WWeb will be very big and very soon. The tailenders will miss out. webevents.broadcast.com I better watch this one! <The Trouble Discerning Major Paradigm Shifts George Gilder, Chairman, GilderGroup Gary Winnick, Founder and Co-Chairman, Global Crossing Ltd> Gilder says Major Paradigm Shift Happens!

To: Scott Zion who wrote (3483)	11/25/1999 7:05:00 PM
From: Scott Zion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

From the Yankee Group Report titled "Executive Summary of The Yankee Group Cellular/PCS Competitive Licensing Assessment and Global Cellular/PCS Subscriber Forecast" 11/99 snip----- The Yankee Group believes that as wireless network operators and individual markets reach maturity, network operators will increasingly be measured on new metrics of performance, which will indicate the companies' long-term profitability success. Whereas the industry has traditionally focused on subscribers and average revenue per user (ARPU) as a key metric in an operator's business operations, we believe the long-term de-linking of the market's subscription potential from the subscriber metric will increasingly bring forward the need for new metrics of performance. Under this subscription-based model of operator performance, we believe that an operator's true measure of performance will be a measure of revenue per some metric of traffic per MHz of spectrum in use. Using rev/bits/MHz-in-use and net income/bits/MHz-in-use metrics, the operator can measure the spectral efficiency and profitability of its greatest underlying asset: its allocated spectrum resources. These metrics also give strength to our argument that technology matters. Depending upon technology selection, equipment provider selection, network architecture, and available spectrum, a given operator will be able to offer a certain amount of erlangs per square mile (i.e., total available measure of traffic) and erlangs per cell site.The Yankee Group is projecting 1.26 billion global cellular/PCS (includes U.S. ESMR and Japan PHS) subscribers by 2005, which represents a 1995-2005 and 1999-2005 compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.8% and 17.9%, respectively. As shown in Exhibit 9, this growth represents the expansion of global cellular/PCS teledensity from 1.53% in 1995 to 7.89% in 1999, and to 19.54% in 2005. There will increasingly be a de-linking of the subscriber and subscription measurements of an operator's performance due to multiple subscriptions per subscriber, and telemetry applications for multiple industry segments become a new source of growth. For instance, NTT DoCoMo taking the extreme viewpoint estimates that by 2010 only one-third of its subscriptions will be what we today define as subscriber-based services. This distinction has significant implications for the wireless industry as spectral efficiency and network utilization will ultimately dictate the network operators' addressable markets. Addressable markets will no longer be tied to the population of a given market. Assuming by 2005 a possible 10% gain from telemetry and another possible 5% gain from multiple subscriptions per end user, we believe that by 2005 incremental gains could be in the 10% to 15% range and ramp upward from there in the 2005-2010 period. Utilizing the maximum positive impact and applying that spread to our global subscriber forecast, we can conjecture a total subscription market of 1.417 billion in 2005 versus our subscriber estimate of 1.257 billion. In short, the global cellular/PCS subscriber market continues to defy gravity, and perhaps the subscription model will prove even more profitable.