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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (29793)	11/23/1999 8:58:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Mohan It ia laways good to be on the right side of the market, luckily I have some decent calls and with the help of knowledge on the internet was able to call this market to best of my little ability so far, I think it is fun to see money growing with little exposure fully leveraged with out of money calls...in a uptrending markets making new high this has been the mantra of htis thread never short a market making new high I ahve my levels I look at them every day very closely and play my long short strategies with lethal accuracy, all said and done it does make me concerned that everyone looks at the market as easy way to make money that isn ot correct I have seen people blinded like a deer when market break supports, so I have learned this two way trading skills which has helped me a lot, any way you remembr our debate on MOT this darn thing is doubled, it did test 50's but it repaid the trsut investors had in it. now AMAT I got out last week now ar 103 and I am watching if SOX holds 625 sypport.. so all sais and done it is not the spin that brings the market to these levels I assure you that hard earned money is the smartest and some values and potential was overlooked last year by people who failed to see that makret can exact a huge sweet revenge on the naysayers. Foe me never get wedded to one side of the market play the momentum andthe volatility that is the name of the game.. Are you seriously suggesting that 'inflation' has been hidden and under-reported by spin doctors? I truely believe that 'commodity era is dead this is knowledge based economy that travels with speed of light at no cost, that 'death of geography' leads to imported price stability and a 'freer global trade' leads to lessening of wage pressures. Macro economic is freed from location and the mobility of labour where I order nearly all my stuff form the most competitive supplier has made my neighbourhood utility store any e-commerce shop on the internet, the other day I ordered my shirts from California, they were priced three times here, I GOT MY MONOGORAM for free, now thati s real commerce, and I look at it otehr way I apply a cap rate of 5% to S&P 500 profits that gives me a market cap of 9 trillion $ for S7P 500 stocks.. I see that we may still have some room until 2002.. however i would love this to consolidate its gains..around 1330 level and play a range betwen 1382 top 1475..so thati s my goal objectives and if it stays on that course your traling entry points will keep moving higher now 8000 looks a decent entry point..isn't it from 4000 to 8000 it is now a huge move ofr the shorts..

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (29793)	11/26/1999 6:57:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Just wanted to share this news on your last post.. <<That is pretty pathetic spin. We are already ignoring everything that goes up in the CPI. Why bother with change anything at all. In any case, Slick Willy's administration will be glad to oblize on this request: <<Now if we could get the Labor Department to recognize this as well, and reduce the weight that oil has in its price indexes, the higher price of crude oil wouldn't affect its measurement of producer and consumer prices as much as it now does.>> After all, in the last 7 years more revisions were made to the way Govt numbers are calculated than in the previous 3 decades. Surprise surprise, all of them support the bullish spin. >> Now even reputed weekly 'The Economist' has joined the chorus that....It seems that oil-price shocks are less shocking than they used to be .. COULD the bad old days of stagflation be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December and its highest since the Gulf war in 1991. This near-tripling of oil prices evokes scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-80, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global recession. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time? Their absence is even more striking given that, at the start of the year, many commentators (including, rather prominently, this newspaper) expected prices to fall, not rise. OPEC?s agreement to cut output has so far proved more durable than many predicted. The oil price was given another nudge up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports in a showdown with the UN over sanctions. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term. Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. The sharp rise in oil prices follows an equally sharp collapse over the previous two years, when prices fell by more than half to their lowest level in real terms since before the 1973 shock. Even now, prices are not much higher than in early 1997. Moreover, in most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past. Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies?to which heavy industry has shifted?have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed. The impact on the output of oil-importing countries also depends on whether oil producers save or spend their windfalls. In 1973 and 1979 many OPEC countries already had current-account surpluses, and most of their extra oil revenues were saved. Today, many have large current-account deficits (Saudi Arabia?s hit 10% of GDP last year). Cash-strapped producers are more likely to spend their windfalls on imports from rich countries. One more reason not to lose sleep over the surge in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the backdrop of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizeable chunk of the world is only just emerging from recession. The Economist?s commodity price index is broadly unchanged from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%. Refining the argument Even if the impact will be more modest than in the past, dearer oil will still leave some mark. Inflation will be higher and output lower than they would be otherwise. The OECD?s rule of thumb is that a $10 increase, if sustained for a year, would increase the inflation rate in rich economies by about half a percentage point and knock about a quarter-point off growth. The impact of higher oil prices varies by country too. Perhaps the biggest risk is in America, where rising oil prices may push the inflation rate higher than is currently predicted. The slide in oil prices in recent years was one of the main factors that helped to hold down American inflation, so prolonging the country?s long economic expansion. That positive factor is now going into reverse. Higher oil prices have already helped to lift America?s inflation rate to 2.6% in October, up from 1.5% a year ago; the latest rise in oil prices could well push it above 3%. The core inflation rate remains relatively subdued, but headline inflation could still spill into wages and hence other prices. If it does, the Fed might be forced to raise interest rates by more than is now forecast. So OPEC could yet do more damage than most people expect.