To: BigBull who wrote (55230 ) 11/22/1999 5:31:00 PM From: Gary Burton Read Replies (2) | Respond to
BB--The trouble with Buy and Hold in a market like this is that one never knows if the current up wave is the LAST in the overall multi year sequence. And I would guess that if one goes back to prior major tops and examines the sentiment, news backdrop, etc etc there was no convincing evidence that 'this was the last wave up' when in fact it turned out to be just that. At or near a major top, as you know, they don't ring the bell so that everyone gets out of the pool. That's of course why it's a top. There are more than enough true believers around to camroflage the picture. If there weren't, one would not be near the top in order to make it in the first place. Someone always has to be last in.-----The thing that really concerns me here is the extent to which the "buy all dips/it can't fail" bulls have been lulled out onto the diving board. It's like rolling 6's 12 times in a row. By then, hardly any of the believers thinks it will be a 2 the next time. Too much condition reflex a la pavlov... All I am saying at the moment is that we are long overdue for a correction. And since virtually everyone expects that such a correciton is just another dip on the way to your 30/40,000, there is absolutely no fear out there. Perfect scenario for the Bear to finally take the elevator down.... In an 80 story building, once you reach the 79th floor the dippers get off and wait for the elevator to come back down a bit from the 80th floor down to the 79th again and then all the dippers crowd back onto the elevator....well we all know the rest of the story.... Certified dippers of course are convinced that they are only on the 16th floor with 64 floors to go at which point the fix will be in and they will all be told "psst, this time don't get back on the elevator".....When the Bear takes that elevator down , you can bet that the elevator will be litterly stuffed with dippers. The first shock will be if the DJIA takes out 9975 on the next 'dip'. If it does that (and I'm not saying it will), then many of the dippers will say "holy cow, it wasn't supposed to do that, it never did before".
