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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fun-da-Mental#1 who wrote (33962)	11/22/1999 6:21:00 PM
From: Jorge Sierra	Respond to of 99985

FDM, I think we are at the top but I wont make too much noise about it.

To: Fun-da-Mental#1 who wrote (33962)	11/22/1999 8:53:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Respond to of 99985

>>How many here think this is the top?<< I do... I closed out my long positions in the December SP's and took a light short position on the close today..... but, new highs and I fold.....<g> we'll see... I may be a day or so early..... GZ

To: Fun-da-Mental#1 who wrote (33962)	11/23/1999 4:14:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Fun-da-Mental: I'm not sure what your time parameters are when you ask "How many here think this is the top?" Do you mean for this week, the next two weeks, this year, or a top as in a top for the next 3 months? I did quite a bit of looking at last year's chart, since the price action in 1998 was actually quite similar to this year: Rally into mid-summer, falling off in Aug, steeper into late Sept, fairly dramatic bottom in October. Same retest of lows, to form a W bottom. I've looked at how some of the TA looked in 1998, as compared to up to now. The main things I noticed out of this study: Last year's correction: Bottomed about one week sooner than this year (Oct. 8th for 1998, Oct. 15th for 1999), was deeper sell-off percentage-wise, and took longer for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs. In 1998, when the S&P did reach new highs though, the S&P paused for three days, with hardly any price movement. Then the S&P had a good one-day down-draft of ~35 pts. The Nasdaq, interestingly enough, was a couple of days behind the S&P in flirting with a new high, there on that day after Thanksgiving Day, 1998. The flirtation was brief. On Monday, Nov. 30, 1998 the Nasdaq also got pummeled: ~75 pt down-draft. For the Nasdaq, that was then about a 3.7% one-day haircut, and for the S&P, about a 2.9% one-day haircut. In today's numbers, that's about 42 pts on the SPX, and about 125 pts on the Nasdaq. Both indexes did recover quite well, after a few volatile days, and floated on up in Dec. 1998 making new highs, and on into Jan. I'm not saying that the indexes will ever again have heart-stopping down-drafts. But it would not surprise me in the least if something on that order happened, and soon.