Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (80744)	11/22/1999 9:33:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573135

Hi Jim: The source of the $63 is the Yahoo 5 year chart for AMD. Draw a straight line across the troughs and draw another straight line across the peaks. The fact that these lines are almost parallel is significant from a technical perspective in defining the 5 year trading range. $63 (i.e. $60 - $65) is a rough estimate of the price required to break out of the upper boundary within the next 6 months. The 3 year triangular pattern is obtained by drawing a straight line across the peaks that have occurred since 1997. It slopes down and to the right. This triangular pattern is exceedingly significant owing both to its duration and to the fact that volatility is increasingly compressed as "the nose" of the triangle to the right (where the downward sloping line meets the lower boundary of the 5 year trading range) is approached. Technically,this compression, is likely to uncoil like a released spring when the upper boundary is pierced. What is really neat wrt AMD is that the strengthening fundamentals can easily be rationalized to support the 2 predomiinant patterns in this classic 5 year chart. You won't often see such compelling fundamental and technical signals converging in such unison. It is my experience that when they do, (see TXN in 1995), the result can be a very significant upward spiral in price. Look at what AMD has accomplished since the Dirk Meyer presentation last June. IBM is now advertising the Athlon 700 on its webstore page. Imagine how much more AMD is likely to accomplish in Y2000. Do you really believe that $27 incorporates the Athlon and flash bit potential. I DON'T. The flash bit alone can support $27. How much value will 10 million Athlons (conservative estimate) in Y2000 add to AMD...Multiples of $27, imho! What do you think would happen to the price of AMD if AMD announces its first ever $billion quarter (an outside possibility, methinks) in January? Intel trades at $80 and is targeted at $100 by street analysts based upon a Y2000 EPS of $2.50. If AMD sells 10 million Athlons in Y2000, Y2000 EPS should far exceed $2.50 in which case, $63 does not seem an unreasonable target by the first anniversary in June 2000 of Dirk Meyer's June '99 Athlon presentation. Imho, the "pardigm shift" has already occurred. Confirmation of this "paradigm shift" requires a price above $63. Current technical and fundamental indicators suggest to me that confirmation of the "paradigm shift" will be achieved in the not too distant future. Jim, look at that 5 year chart, and "plug in" your own fundamental assumptions. I think you too will find that it really isn't all that much of a stretch to bridge $27 and $63.