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To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (1841)11/22/1999 8:43:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2126
 
Duane:

I don't remember too much from 59. I do remember being sick with the flu, measles, mumps, chicken pox, etc. on every holiday (or at least it seemed that way).

On year end small stocks (and I'm not sure of your meaning of small).

1) OBAS between $10.5 and $11.5 looks good. I'll be adding more to a sizable position. The CSCO announcement took all the risk out of the stock. Hard support @ 9. I expect it to be @ $18 by earnings in January with $40 doable next year.

2) CCUR - my Video On Demand play. They provide the VOD software for the new digital cable boxes by SFA and GIC. I think it will consolidate around this level ($14 to $15 with solid support down @ $9 the last buy signal, but I doubt it will go lower than $13.5)for a week or two and then move. Remember though I thought OBAS would wait to move too. I have $30 by year end with news of new orders from SFA. This is one of the explosive areas over the next 5 years.

3) SIII - my value play. Anywhere under $10 is a steal(their UMC holding are worth $6 a share). I don't expect it to run too much this year but do expect $16 by end of January.

4) MRVC - I've been in and out of this one. Not sure if it will retrace to $25 when the networkers sell off (which I expect). Its new products make it a great long term play. I expect it to hit $45 by March / June time frame with potential to run much higher. Its scary but if its taken out the price could be in the $200+ range.

5) AMD - I'm playing calls only. Great looking chart and not sure if the fundamentals match up (look @ the Jan or April options). Gerry Sanders has been know to promise and not deliver before. High risk here but INTC is dropping the ball with coppermine (avoid rmbs) and the Anthlon can step in if AMD can produce it in quanity.

6) CAMP & DMIC in microwave buildout.

7) ANCR & WIND - well I missed both and will still wait to see if they ever retreat. Maybe I'll get my price when they split.

8) QWST - nice chart. All it needs is news on the buyout of US West being near completion and it will move 30%.

9) PSFT - nice chart but I'll wait a little longer to confirm trend.

I have positions in 1-4 and am waiting for soxx to retreat more before entering #5. Can't help you on risk standpoint since we all have our own levels and I've made mistakes before.

IOM - well I like thier Jaz, zip, zip 250 and I'll probably purchase a CR-R of thiers. Haven't looked at the chart though. Seems like they have a lot of competition though (not that SIII, MRVC & AMD don't either).

Tim






To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (1841)11/23/1999 12:56:00 AM
From: John Miz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2126
 
biz.yahoo.com

Monday November 22, 9:30 pm Eastern Time

Chip equipment book to bill rises in October

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., Nov. 22 (Reuters) - New orders for
semiconductor manufacturing equipment from North American based
manufacturers rose in October, boosting the widely watched
book-to-bill ratio to 1.09, the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials
International trade group reported on Monday.

The book-to-bill ratio of 1.09, which was up from 1.07 in September,
means that $109 in orders were received for each $100 worth of
products shipped.

The three-month average of worldwide shipments in October 1999 was $1.47 billion -- up 4 percent
above the September level, and 72 percent higher than the October 1998 shipments level of $852 million.

The three-month average of bookings in October 1999 was $1.59 billion -- up 6 percent above September,
and 150 percent above the $638 million posted in October 1998.

''The October numbers show that equipment orders are back on track for full recovery,'' said Stanley
Myers, the trade group's president. ''The resurgence of the global semiconductor industry, coupled with
positive economic and industry forecasts for 2000, appear to be finally spurring growth in capital
spending.''

The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average
shipments for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. Shipments and bookings figures are
in millions of dollars.

Month Shipments Bookings Book-to-Bill
May 99 1,216.7 1,514.2 1.24
June 99 1,288.3 1,560.5 1.21
July 99 1,375.2 1,530.9 1.11
August (final) 1,440.7 1,565.1 1.09
September (revised) 1,406.5 1,502.2 1.07
October 99 (prelim) 1,465.0 1,592.0 1.09