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Technology Stocks : PairGain Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: john p. carney who wrote (34857)	11/22/1999 9:57:00 PM
From: DWCraig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36349

John, That was a good call, and a good pick with CS. The gain in CS from your purchase at 17 to today's close at 24 was 41.18 percent. The gain in PAIR from your sale at 12 to today's close at 17 3/16 was 43.23 percent. Roughly even, surprisingly, but diversity is good. I raised some questions to Doug R. in an attempt to shed some light on his system. Like you, I know how to read a chart, and have studied thousands of them. So when Doug R. would talk about this or that, I would recreate it as best I could to examine what he was saying (although his unorthodox terminology is a challenge in itself). For example, on November 4, he made the following comment in a post on this thread: "Another important technical consideration is based on the moving average (MA) as it relates to the moving linear regression line (MLR) . As simply as I can put it, the MLR bisects the price movement in such a way that 1/2 the time the price will be above the indicator and 1/2 the time it will be below the indicator. As the price trends in one direction or another, the MLR will trend with it (hence "moving") on a slightly lagging basis. I have found that an 89 day MA and an 89 day MLR combination is most useful in consideration of the particular long term price pattern that PAIR exhibits. The salient point here is, if the MLR is above the MA, there will be a much greater propensity for the price to remain above the MA MORE than 1/2 the time thus having a greater tendency to pull the MA up. A rising MA is a key factor in maintaining a positive tone on the price. PAIR's 89 dMLR is above the 89 dMA and both are rising." Well, when he posted that, I made up the following chart: boradive.com This shows exactly what Doug R. describes, plus two parallel 1.5 standard deviation lines to help identify a channel. Take a look at it if you have a chance. You'll see that his comments are appropriate. Well, of course I will nitpick and point out that an MA is based on a price series, and to say that "a rising MA is a key factor in maintaining a positive tone on the price" isn't really very enlightening. But, having a chart in front of you to see what someone is saying when they talk TA is half the battle. That's why I always e-mail charts to my friends to show them exactly where I've constructed trend lines, identified breakouts, etc. It just helps to avoid confusion and prevent misunderstandings. I have offered to post charts of Doug R's system (or parts of it) so we can all examine and evaluate it. He can tell what he wants me to display, the time period, the technical studies, trendlines, whatever. I'd be glad to do it to help people on this thread understand what he's saying. I'll even let him approve the charts before I post them. Who knows, it might turn into a valuable learning experience for all of us. I've made my offer and it stands. If you're listening, Doug R., it's up to you.