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Technology Stocks : Vari-L (VARL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JBruin who wrote (1416)	11/22/1999 10:22:00 PM
From: akmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2702

JBruin-Vari-L can add capacity very quickly. It is for this reason that $30 in 12 months is attainable. IMO it is easier to forecast the surging earnings than to anticipate the multiple that will be accorded them. The thing to keep in mind here is that earnings could grow at a high rate for quite a long time. We are starting from a small base in earnings but have a very large base of customer relationships who are enjoying exploding demand. (and the technology seems to be channeling that demand toward VARL) Best regards, Mike

To: JBruin who wrote (1416)	11/23/1999 10:37:00 AM
From: Robert Sheldon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2702

Would I be too "aggressive" to say VARL should be at 30 within 12 months ($1 eps with a 30 PE)? It would be a stretch ($1 eps), but VARL could show up with $0.85 to $0.95 for FY 2000. VARL's industry is trading at 40X . . . So by your analysis the target would be $34 to $38. But this assumes that the market will continue to value the group at these LOFTY valuations. Also note that other components companies such as RFMD (yes, it used to approximate VARL's size just two short years ago) trade at multiples in the 75X to 100X range. That is just ridiculous. To value VARL, I prefer to use an intrinsic valuation analysis which indicates a target in the high $30s to low $40s. BUT!, just because I have a target at a specific level does not mean the stock will move there immediately. We could take awhile to get there (12 to 18 months). Be patient & accumulate more. :-)