To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (14299 ) 11/22/1999 11:49:00 PM From: Brian Malloy Respond to of 19700
That is one of the things that only the individual investor can answer. For me only, if I am really considering a stock long term then I tend to buy it, especially with regard to high tech. Speed often means security so to speak. Big moves tend to be compressed in short time periods and you think they have to stop but they often don't. I have faced this dilema in the past few months and weeks with JDSU, EXDS, SDLI, and QCOM. At least in the case of these stocks I chose to buy even though I feared a retracement and it worked out as the right choice. Things to consider: 1. If you know you want CMGI and you know you will hold in the future regardless of what happens then you could probably buy it tomorrow, maybe on an intraday pull back to the $138 level. Two or five years from now the relative price around today will not mean much. 2. If you are looking for a deep pullback, its a possibility but given this market and the seasonal strength in the inets and the good buzz in general on CMGI now, I think the probability is low. A 1/3 retracement of the run from $100 would be $128 and if we get a sell off in the first two weeks of December in the general market it could be seen. At the same time we could rise to $200. 3. Consider, buying about 1/3 of a position tomorrow. If the stock weakens near term then buy more lower. If the stock continues to move then you may have to move in earlier. 4. Another option is to get a DEC 150 call @10. If the stock runs away to $200 then you can take delivery of the shares at a cost of $160 (including the current premium). On the other hand if CMGI heads down then you simply buy it at a lower price and eat the call premium. Basically, this will help if you are undeceided but afraid that it might run up on you. Consider the call as an insurance policy. If CMGI drops then you pay a little more but the upside insurance protection may outweigh that fact. Check the various option strikes and premiums and see which one works best for you. Regards,