And here's what I'm hoping for Novell
From today's WSJ---
"Assuming New Year's doesn't arrive with some Y2K-related nightmare out of a TV movie, circle March on your 2000 calendar. That's when companies will launch a torrent of business-to-business e-commerce projects that the millennium bug is keeping on ice until then.
Most companies have "locked down" their systems and software, making changes only for the most pressing reasons. A survey earlier this year conducted by Cambridge, Mass., market-research firm Forrester Research Inc. found that 69% of large global companies will lock down their system infrastructure for up to five months or more after fixing the year-2000 bug. The thinking is that once the systems are tested and believed free of any potential problems, the wisest thing to do is wait until the danger is past before
tinkering again.
March 1 will come after a number of big dates for companies: Besides Y2K, there's the leap year, the expiration of most lockdowns and the planned introduction of Windows 2000 on Feb. 17. But once it does arrive, intranets, extranets and e-commerce will quickly rise to the top of many information-technology agendas. Forrester's survey estimated that 53% of IT spending in 2000 is earmarked for Internet and e-commerce projects. What's more, some 45% of overall spending next year will be aimed at projects delayed by Y2K.
Consultants, Web designers, software developers and IT professionals are all fervently hoping that forecast is correct. Regardless, most of them did well this year in a robust economy that spawned thousands of new business-to-consumer e-commerce sites. Next year it will be
business-to-business e-commerce, also known as B2B, that steps into the spotlight.
"B2B is going to shoot through the roof next year," says Jim Dixon, chief executive officer of Broadreach Consulting, a Wayne, Pa., company that builds business-to-business e-commerce solutions for large companies. His reasoning: "There's a big difference between business-to-consumer and business-to-business. Merrill Lynch is competing with E*Trade and they have to do stuff now. Companies in the business-to-business space can't see the competition yet so they can wait. They don't have to tinker right now."
From all indications Mr. Dixon is correct -- but 1999 wasn't exactly an off-year for Broadreach, whose e-commerce revenue has grown 145% so far this year, according to Mr. Dixon. "If it had not been for Y2K, our e-business revenue would have grown at 70% instead of 32% the last quarter," he says.
The level of optimism about next year varies depending on whom you talk to. Conservative types believe the business-to-business e-revolution will unfold slowly over the next two or three years instead of gushing out all at
once immediately after Y2K worries subside.
"As things get better next year, projects will get released, but most of the largest 2,000 companies globally have not figured out a business-to-business strategy yet," says EMC Corp. Chief Executive and President Michael Ruettgers. Hopkinton, Mass.-based EMC, which has enjoyed 30% growth for 10 consecutive quarters, makes computer storage systems, a key element in any e-commerce infrastructure.
Given EMC's strong recent growth, Mr. Ruettgers isn't convinced Y2K fears made much of a difference in customer plans this year. "Maybe [their absence] would have added 5% more business," he says.
Once out of the doldrums, dollars spent remedying the Y2K bug will shift to e-commerce projects. "We spent 38,000 hours fixing Y2K -- now we're ready to go full-bore on the Internet," says John Link, chief information officer at QVC Inc., the West Chester, Pa., cable-TV shopping network and online retailer that's a unit of Philadelphia's Comcast Corp.
That's a lot of work, but it's a drop in the bucket compared to the time Cigna Group Insurance has put on Y2K. "We worked on Y2K for four or five years and are being very cautious," says Cigna Group Insurance President John Leonard, whose division is one of eight at parent Cigna Corp. Cigna's lockdown started in mid-November and will last until March
1.
When the Y2K cloud lifts, Mr. Leonard says, business-to-business e-commerce activity at Cigna Group Insurance will take off. He cites three reasons: greater economic justification, pent-up demand for new business-to-business applications in the group-insurance business, and the opportunities Y2K has presented to bring systems up to date.
"We cleaned up a lot of stuff," he says, adding that "I don't think we're atypical -- we're all in the same spot."
Pep Boys isn't overconfident. The company's systems will be locked down until about Dec. 20 as a matter of course, not for Y2K. Since concluding work on the bug two months ago, Pep Boys has started focusing in earnest once again on e-commerce.
"Now, my time on electronic commerce is increasing," says Mr. Goodman. "We're putting resources in place."
Only time will tell, but barring any major unforeseen Y2K disasters, the pace of the Internet's continued transformation of business should pick up in about four months."
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Get that marketing campaign ready!!!! Go Novell!!!! |
