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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul feldman who wrote (55256)	11/23/1999 9:41:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Bloomberg - year 2000 Crude price forecasts... Time to run the numbers on $20+ crude for the E&P's. They are simply mis-priced here at these levels. Once again; OEI is the gift of the sector imho... Nat Gas is weather/sentiment driven here; surely has a great opportunity to surprise to the upside - but; it is much less quantifiable and predictable than crude prices. The underlying fundamentals of supply and demand for crude are more predictable and are stronger; due to the global growth that we are seeing signs of from every corner. The balanced Oil to Gas producers are "the" play here imho. If one plays the nat gas pure plays; you may have a short term window this winter; but with each passing week; the likliehood of a NG squeeze play diminishes and the ususal spring selloff looms closer. I think we'll see $2.50ish avg Nat Gas per SSB's newly reduced estimates - and that supports much higher shareprices that present levels. The balanced plays have hedged pretty well overall. Finally the table may turn and many E&P's will be realizing prices 30-40-75cents over market prices for half of their production in many cases. Add that to $20+ crude oil; which per the Bloomberg article, everyone is predicting for year 2000 - and you have some major, major upside to the balanced producers from these prices. The numbers that OEI PXD UPR will produce in the next 2 qtrs vastly exceed the fall of '98 numbers; and these stocks are in most cases 50% off of those former shareprice levels. I'll buy into that anomaly; as the street will "catch up" to the fundamentals sooner, or later. The balanced producers are incorrectly selling off in lockstep to the nat gas pureplays - on this NG weakness of late. - WRONG ! this is the window of opportunity for the small fish to grab.... I like UPR on a break under $14 here - sitting at $13 3/4's - $12 7/8ths; PXD here and on any further weakness - maybe sit at $9 1/2 and $8 3/4's; and best of all -OEI, which I am buying strongly here, sitting at $7 15/16ths & $7 if seen. fwiw; OEI is now my largest single holding - by a wide measure and I am adding here at $8 3/8ths strongly; $8 triggers full margin on down ea 1/2 to $7, $6 1/2 if seen. Year 2000 Crude Price Forecasts: quote.bloomberg.com Lets see what the API's have in store tonight; the ususal tuesday selloff will offer longterm buying opps regardless of what the weekly #'s are... Put you buying hat on - and get ready to do some shopping in E&P land. - I am.