To: Don Green who wrote (35044 ) 11/23/1999 4:26:00 PM From: Dave B Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 93625
Don, Nope, just one person's opinion, like most opinions posted here. I was just curious about your statement that the future has been obvious for quite a while. I assumed, maybe incorrectly, that you meant even before the 9/24 delay. If that's what you meant, I don't know what flagged it. We had come up from 52 to 90 from April to September (granted, we were off the high of 117-ish), so it looks to me as if the market was still expecting positive news.It seems the less you know about this technology the better off you are. If you can understand supply and demand, what else do you need to know. LOL! I may not be able to argue against that one! <G>Btw, have you been able to generate a revised outlook on the Rambus prospects? Still positive long term. We've heard many arguments that DDR is best for servers, RDRAM is best for graphics, SDRAM-133 will be best for low-end, et cetera. My question is: do you really think Intel wants to support 3 different memory standards long-term? Is that really the best thing for the industry and for the customer? Maybe it won't be RDRAM, but the customer is best served if the market converges on a single memory standard across all platforms. In the end, the customer will get better prices on whatever the winner is. Memory manufacturers don't have to buy duplicate testing equipment, or set up multiple manufacturing facilities that manufacture separate types of memory (and guessing wrong on their forecasts). I believe that RDRAM will provide the best performance across all platforms long-term. It may involve more work on the part of Rambus (along with the 7 Dramurai) to modify the design to do this, but my technical friends continue to assure me that the basic SDRAM technology is at the end of its life. From Timna up to servers, I believe they'll work out the issues. I do believe, however, that it's going to take longer than it would have taken had they not stumbled. Normally, I don't think a 2 1/2 month delay would have had a large impact, but since there seems to be such a visceral reaction to RDRAM (both positive and negative) I think the anti-RDRAM forces found some new energy and are attacking harder than they might have otherwise. Likewise, I suspect some customers will hold off integrating RDRAM into their designs. If Intel expects to turn RDRAM into a winner, they need to explain what the problem was to reassure designers that they either won't have the same problem, or that Intel has a fix to make sure they can design around the problem. I am out for now. It was a wild rollercoaster ride -- I made a bunch last year, but lost a bunch this year. I'm going to catch my breath, get a hot dog, maybe ride a few other rides, then I fully expect to get back on the rollercoaster in the future. I may trade some in the short term (even though, as I've said in the past, I hate trading). FWIW, Dave