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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (35070)	11/23/1999 5:58:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

Tench, Re"FUD" Well I think Hyundaii's statements and forecasts are very relevant. There basic forecast is for very strong PC100 and PC133 for year 2000. With DDR and RDRAM taking 8-15% each. This seems eminently reasonable and is NOT FUD. DDR is winning in some graphics sockets eg NVIDIA - who are NUMBER 1 in high end graphics cards. They have also swept the VAST majority of SERVER cards with RELIANCE. And Intels solution as you know is PC 100 right now. Rambus is nowhere in desktops or notebooks frankly. The workstation market is pretty small as I am sure you know. The ONLY high - end Cumines that ANYONE has seen is the HP 733's which use VIA and SDRAM. And MICRON the largest US memory house is clearly pushing PC133 and DDR as well. The facts are that sales of RDRAM in Q4 99 will be zilch. Remember Rambus gets paid in the quarter following shipments. So Q1 2000 results will be crap as well as Q4 99's. These ITEMS are FACTS and are not FUD. Rambus may yet win in the 2-3 year longer term a reasonable marketshare if prices drop and manufacturing issues are resolved. But the FUNDAMENTALS for the stock are likely to be extremely dissapointing earnings as well as the PC133 on slaught in the market in Q1 from VIA, AMD and of course SOLANO(intel). regards, Kash.

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (35070)	11/23/1999 8:52:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Re: why DDR is being touted as such a panacea.... Ok, I'll bite, what shortcomings? You don't need to go into gory detail, just hit the high points. As an example, here's a summary of why I don't think it's time for rambus right now: Here are what I think are rambus's benefits: High sustained bandwidth. Interleave (actually, much more than interleave with it's 8 into one mux) on chip instead of on circuit board will eventually be less expensive. Here are its drawbacks: 128 bits wide on chip permits high data rates, but takes up too much silicon space (bad cost/benefit, density) 400MHZ logic on chip makes it expensive to manufacture 400MHZ is too big a jump right now, and runs into too many speed of light issues, limits total memory size. Why couldn't they have started with 200MHZ 32 bit bus? (like DDR - might have been more manufacturable - could have scaled to 400 in a few years, if necessary) The latency in the controller is too high - don't know if that's fixable or not - it evidently takes X number of ns to pull together data from 8 (relatively) slow cells and format it into a fast serial stream. Right now, I think the drawbacks outweigh the benefits, by a fair amount. What is your ball park summary on DDR? Please modify my rambus comments if you think I'm in error on some of them. Dan